Northern Cold Snap – And A Lack Of Larger Snow *For Now* Jan 2, 2013
From GoPro.com - A Dog Jetskiing (Sort Of)

 

Missing Summer Yet?

This is my favorite picture of the day – a reminder that we’re only a few months away from truly warm weather returning to the Midwest, and many other parts of the nation!  That particular photo comes from this past summer up in CANADA, of all places (click here to see more infomation)!

In the meantime… we had this going on over the past few days, so if this is your first time back here at this blog and/or watching WeatherNation, we want to welcome you to the new year:

 

Sydney Fireworks
Sydney Fireworks

 

Justin Hulford sent us that shot – or sequence of shots, if you saw it on WeatherNation first, and it is amazing.  Hopefully you had a great New Year’s Eve celebration, and a great start to 2013.

Many folks are wondering where the warmth of 2012 went – and they are wondering that in a “rightfully so” manner.  Quite a change from the record-warmth we had been seeing, to suddenly see extreme cold move into the region.  Look at some of these chilly temperatures we saw this morning in central Canada:

 

Lows This Morning: Canada
Lows This Morning: Canada

 

Todd Nelson and I were busy joking about how you’d *have* to be a big trout, and you’d have to swim to the bottom of your lake, if you wanted to survive winter in the town of Big Trout Lake.  -31° is certainly a less than ideal temperature!

The nice thing to know is that there IS a little bit of warming on the way for many folks.  The temperatures will not be summer-like, but some upper 20s will eventually replace teens for highs in the coldest regions.

Looking Ahead: Any Big Storms?

We’ve been peeking ahead at the next couple of days worth of computer models, and are starting to see some signs that possibly as soon as mid-late week next week we could get a larger-scale storm system.  Let’s take a look at some different scenarios with regard to that possibility…

Here is the GFS’ computer model forecast for about 8 days out (putting us at roughly next Thursday).  Notice all of the shaded regions, which are indicating rain/snow/various precip types:

 

GFS Next Thursday
GFS Next Thursday

 

It’s kind of amazing how you can quickly snap out of a dry/quiet spell and get something along these lines, so we’ll see just how large-scale this ends up being in the end.  At this point I’d imagine a storm of some variety is/will be accurate, but 8 days out on the GFS can get you into a world of trouble, if you believe everything you see!

Here is how it would break down, if it were to take place as indicated:

 

GFS Next Thursday
GFS Next Thursday

 

Notice the possibility of snowfall over the Midwest.  That could end up being at least a few inches of snowfall for some folks, if it were to pan out!  Meanwhile, rain and thunder would impact much of the southern stretches of our nation.

Here is what the European model (ECMWF) is showing for roughly that same wave of energy/same time period:

 

ECMWF Next Thursday
ECMWF Next Thursday

 

Notice how the rain would build much further north.  I’ll be honest with you, as a meteorologist, and say that I don’t really see either of those scenarios we just mentioned happening as the models would indicate.  I’d imagine a blend of the two – likely leaning toward a colder solution will be what actually happens.  Meaning: light snow to the North, and light to moderate rain in areas that are snow-free or nearly so to the South.

Keep tabs over the next couple of days, and certainly stay tuned to WeatherNation for more updates on this!

WeatherNation Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer @ashafferWNTV

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