Rain, Snow, and Maybe a Tropical Low? Oct 30, 2008

Rain, snow, and a possible tropical low are in our future through next week (notice the ‘rhyme’ with the lack of iambic pentameter? lol). Glancing at our HAMmodel extended GFS products a formation similar to what occurred during the last snow event is starting to take shape. As i’ve previously discussed, using GFS this far out tends to be problematic at best, yet it is still an essential and exciting thing to do.

Today let’s begin by examining our HAMmodel 180 hour Liquid Precipitation Forecast product at 3 hour intervals (below).

GFS 180hr Liquid Precip Loop

A few things are immediately apparent, the first being that precipitation will begin entering the western United States from central California northward to the Pacific Northwest. This will begin as early as this evening and tomorrow morning. So take your galoshes and umbrellas for the kids if you plan to search for goulies and goblins on Halloween, or for those Harry Potter fans “All Hallows Eve.”

As the rain begins moving further inland we can expect some snow in the upper elevations, with some excitement showing itself by midweek and especially by next Thursday in the great plains. As you view the animation above, do you notice a familiar pattern in the distribution of the forecast precipitation? =)

Let’s examine this from a different perspective with our HAMmodel GFS 180hr Forecast Snowdepth product (below).

GFS 180hr Forecast Snowdepth Animation

Notice as our HAMmodel 180hr Forecast Snowdepth product begins (please refer to this post for descriptions of the product) no snowdepth is shown (also recall that GFS is a low resolution product), however as the days progress, most notably beginning around Monday, showdepth (projected snowfall) propogates easterly into the Rockies and eventually into the Great Plains by midweek.

The last two times since the advent of fall that GFS has displayed a similar pattern, we received respectable snowfalls in the general area, and around the general times forecast. What is most exciting about the combination of liquid precipitation forecast product and forecast snowdepth product are the clearly delineated outlines defining the potential for an ‘event.’ Let us see if it is so.

Depending upon model transition for the above, and with respect to tropical activities, there is some strong disagreement with emphasis upon a strongly tilted negative trough into next week, in and around the southern Mississippi Valley. However, there does seem to be a general agreement with the possibility of a tropical or hybrid low developing in an area from the Western Carribean out along aline heading towards Bermuda. It will be fun to see if anything can pull together.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!



Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


Can you see it? On Thursday Chandler Davis caught a nice lightning strike when crossing the Mississippi River. #TNWX https://t.co/e5riHc8EIJ

45 minutes ago by WeatherNation

Spaceship? Nope, it's a beautiful photo of thunderstorm structure in Plainfield, IN earlier on Friday. #INWX https://t.co/8PS7scKJxG

1 hour ago by WeatherNation

Spooky footage of the #ReyFire in California Thursday evening. It has burned 33,006 acres and is 39% contained. https://t.co/l89yLf3JQm

2 hours ago by WeatherNation

Holy Tornado! Check out this rare tornado that touched down near Panguitch, UT Friday afternoon. #utwx https://t.co/MZ06JRYzKC

3 hours ago by WeatherNation

Say 'So Long' – Summer's Fading FastLatest: https://t.co/JXYiHHRqjU https://t.co/GovLrjirWe

4 hours ago by WeatherNation

#FireWhirl witnessed in Yreka, California area. #GradeFire has destroyed at least 5 homes.📸 Tracy Bensen Gorsuch https://t.co/x0LsxGLI6J

5 hours ago by WeatherNation

#YaleRoadfire/#SpokaneComplex–Winds continue to spread wildfires in Spokane WA area.🎥mychelle.merendino/Instagram https://t.co/BQg7dRbayz

7 hours ago by WeatherNation

Kokomo, Indiana​ #tornado, rated an EF-3 with 165 mph winds. #INwxMore:https://t.co/UBvqbZCxAZ 🎥:@ViralHog https://t.co/F8WGxnTvwL

9 hours ago by WeatherNation

Monitoring the tropics- @WeatherNation on the ground in #Bahamas. This from this morning in #Nassau. https://t.co/hq1r19JFqo

9 hours ago by WeatherNation

#GOESR–Next Generation #WX Satellite Takes Its First Flight, Gears Up for LaunchDetails: https://t.co/T6VaNpeo5m https://t.co/upZggqoxy9

10 hours ago by WeatherNation

#Snow has returned to the #Colorado high country. The average first snowfall in Denver is Oct 19. #COwx https://t.co/gZeeMvcHD4

10 hours ago by WeatherNation

#Texas had their fair share of strong #storms on Thursday. Heavy rain and #hail blanketed the streets of Amarillo. https://t.co/QX0TOH5dik

11 hours ago by WeatherNation

The threat for #SevereWeather today is centered around Kansas City. #MOwx #KSwx https://t.co/BAdt1GGCR7

12 hours ago by WeatherNation

TORNADO WARNING: For Hancock, Marion, Shelby counties east of #Indianapolis. Take cover now! Until 9:15 am EDT https://t.co/OB3WQge6r7

13 hours ago by WeatherNation

The sun is coming up on day two of #tornado damage clean up in Kokomo, IN. @WeatherNation is on the scene this AM. https://t.co/D8c0KQHtts

15 hours ago by WeatherNation

TGIF! Here is a look at your high temperatures for the day. #WeatherNation https://t.co/avP26isdGO

16 hours ago by WeatherNation

Seattle hit 91 today, breaking the previous record of 87 set in 1982. More: https://t.co/YrkbQtoQ6w https://t.co/sb8GKsaXgj

21 hours ago by WeatherNation

Heavy rain and hail fell in Amarillo, #Texas this afternoon. Video: Kevin Saunders https://t.co/BIZXQtLn8d

22 hours ago by WeatherNation
Follow Us