The SPC has issued a thunderstorm watch ( view active warnings | view radar with warnings overlay ) for northern Minnesota active until 10pm central daylight time. This watch was issued directly in the path of the slight risk area outlined for their convective outlook.
The storms do not appear likely to produce tornadoes, but with the moderate instability have the potential to support respectable hail, and damaging winds. Current satellite imagery shows a well defined boundary beginning to form in advance of the cold front, and as convective inhibition continues to weaken via daytime heating and the introduction of a shortwave aloft, the storms will begin to form shortly.
as an example of the hail potential mentioned above, note the following excerpt from a thunderstorm warning issued for one of the storms that has since formed:
- THIS STORM WILL AFFECT HIGHWAY 53 BETWEEN VIRGINIA AND COTTON AND
HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND UP TO 2 INCHES DEEP NEAR SILICA.
The entire warning is below:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING Issue Date: 558 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008 Expiration: 645 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008 Expires:200809262345;; WUUS53 KDLH 262258 SVRDLH MNC137-262345- /O.NEW.KDLH.SV.W.0243.080926T2258Z-080926T2345Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 558 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 645 PM CDT * AT 556 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TOIVOLA...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF HIBBING...AND MOVING EAST AT 32 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... CHERRY BY 605 PM... KELSEY AND PAYNE BY 610 PM... ZIM AND IRON JUNCTION BY 615 PM... MURPHY LAKE AND EVELETH BY 625 PM... MELRUDE AND SHAW BY 630 PM... MAKINEN BY 635 PM... THIS STORM WILL AFFECT HIGHWAY 53 BETWEEN VIRGINIA AND COTTON AND HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND UP TO 2 INCHES DEEP NEAR SILICA. IN ADDITION... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY RESULT IN RAPID FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. CAMPERS...HIKERS...AND PEOPLE PARTICIPATING IN OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BOATERS...FISHERMEN...AND OTHER PEOPLE ON OR NEAR AREA LAKES SHOULD GET OFF THE WATER IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER ONSHORE. LAT...LON 4756 9206 4707 9195 4708 9295 4738 9297 TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 259DEG 28KT 4722 9279
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