2012 Tornadoes, Severe Threat, More Heat and a Tropical Update
Wednesday, August 1st, 2012
Thanks to Mike Hall Photography (Twitter: @Knightd427) for the neat picture below taken out of Owensboro, KY around last night. These thunderstorms developed along a cool front, which produced several wind and hail reports along with one tornado report out of eastern Illinois.
Eastern Illinois Tornado Report
There was only one lone tornado report across the nation yesterday. A brief touchdown near Gibson City, IL with no damage reported.
2012 Tornadoes to Date
The 2012 PRELIMINARY tornado count this year (through July 31st) is at 895 and is quite a bit lower than the 7yr. average (2005-2011) of 1223. At this time last year, there were 1680 PRELIMINARY tornado reports, which is nearly 800 more PRELIMINARY reports than what we’ve had so far this year.
National Tornado Reports
This is a look at the PRELIMINARY tornado reports across the nation through July 30th. Note the two clusters circled in red below. These are the two areas that had a significant tornado days earlier this year.
2012’s 2 Biggest Tornado Days
The 2 biggest tornado days in 2012 so far were in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley in early March and across the Central Plains in mid April. Both days had over 100 PRELIMINARY tornado reports and were considered to be the two most active tornado days of 2012 so far.
Severe Threat Today
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather today for areas in yellow below. These are areas where severe weather would be most likely into the afternoon/evening hours today. Hail and high winds would be the primary threat along with heavy downpours.
The HRRR suggests that thunderstorms would develop near the Twin Cities late afternoon/evening. Keep in mind that these storms could be a little on the vigorous side, so hail and high winds certainly can’t be ruled out.
National 5 Day Rainfall Forecast
NOAA’s HPC 5 day rainfall forecast suggests pockets of heavy rain with thunderstorm activity that develops around the edge of the extreme heat in the South Central part of the country.
The National Weather Service continue heat headlines for several locations in the central part of the country where afternoon heat index values could near 110°
The information below is from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW…AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…60 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Forecast For Invest AL99
The picture below suggests a number of different model solutions, but all track this disturbance through the Caribbean over the next several days… Cruise travelers beware!
Thanks for checking in on this Wednesday, have a great rest of your week.
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