A Snowy St. Patrick’s Day: Will We See A Warming Trend?
More snow falling from Kentucky to the D.C.-area. How familiar is that story to you?
I feel like every week since November we’ve been talking about snow in areas that don’t typically see a whole lot of it, and when you look at the numbers they certainly don’t disagree.
Places like Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Washington, etc – all seeing either above-average snow, below-average cold, or both.
Here is the temperature profile for today, 1 mile up in the atmosphere:
It’s interesting to see the area of low pressure in eastern Nebraska. It’s drawing up 70s east of the Rockies, while drawing down colder air over the Dakotas.
The big question: Is there any hope for warming in the next week or so? And we’ll go one step further and seek out legitimately *warm* temperatures.
We’ll take a peek first at some “normal” temperatures, and then take a quick look at a few candidates for days that could be warm for most of the nation.
Here’s where the average temperatures fall this time of year across the nation:
Notice few larger northern cities: Minneapolis – roughly an average high of 40-45, Chicago – roughly 45-50, Detroit – roughly 45-50.
You get the idea. Unfortunately we have another big cooldown to get through before we can even begin to warm up. We’ll give you the bad news first. Here is a forecast map for next Monday:
See those teens and twenties? Those are your deep purples and blues in the map above. That cooldown holds through the weekend, beginning Friday night and lasting at least into early next week.
There are a few candidates for other warm days in the weeks ahead, however.
One is next Thursday. Another area of low pressure over southern Canada has the potential to draw up some warm air into the Midwest, and allow some significant warming along the Front Range of the Rockies and western Texas.
Another warm-day candidate would be Friday to Saturday (just 24-36 hours after next Thursday’s warm-up).
Here’s what the models are showing for that. Remember that the yellows/oranges/reds are what you want to be seeing.
Another big warm-up.
My takeaways from this exploration of warm weather are the following:
1) We need some warm weather!
2) We need to stay patient. While this weekend we get into a stagnant pattern that drags cold air south, the more extended forecast still looks to be more active… meaning ups to go with the downs in the coming weeks.
WeatherNation Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer @ashafferWNTV