About To Get Snowquestered (heavy snow risk increases for New York and New England)
* Storm is showing signs of hooking farther north, spreading heavy wet snow into Philadelphia, New York, and far western suburbs of Boston.
* Heaviest amounts west of I-95, where some 12″+ snowfall amounts are possible Wednesday night into Thursday.
* 4-8″ still expected downtown D.C. Wednesday, over 12″ northern/western suburbs of Virginia and western Maryland (west of I-270).
* High water content (1-2″ liquid) may mean an enhanced risk of downed tree limbs and power outages.
* This won’t be the scope or intensity of the blizzard in early February, but facilities may be significantly impacted later this week.
* 6-9″ snow next 24-36 hours Twin Cities to Chicago; the same system that will redevelop into a coastal storm impacting the Northeast.
Northeast Snow Potential Increases. The same clipper putting down a 250-mile wide carpet of 6-10″ snow will spin up a major coastal storm Wednesday night into early Friday; rain right along the coast, but potentially heavy, wet snow just inland. Winds will reach 30 mph, just shy of blizzard criteria, but high water content may increase the potential for power outages, especially west of I-95.
Chicago Gridlock. Expect travel delays today in Chicago, where 6-10″ of snow is likely, sparking delays and cancellations at O’Hare and Midway.
A Major Northward Jog. The Midwestern clipper will energize a storm over Virginia, forecast to veer farther northeast than earlier thought, pushing a shield of heavy rain and wet snow across Pennsylvania into New York and interior New England. The heaviest snowfall amounts will fall just inland, a mix of rain and snow for coastal New Jersey and much of Long Island, but heavy wet snow from New York into the suburbs of north Jersey and western Connecticut.
Clues Pointing to a Potentially Major Shift. We look for continuity between all models, and from run to run (there are 4 new model runs every day). The trend is for the storm to hug the coast and recurve northeastward, threatening much of interior New England with a mix of heavy rain and wet snow, the best chance of plowable snowfall amounts just inland.
Delaware Valley Slop-Storm. The latest models print out about 5-6″ for Philadelphia; more possible in Bucks county. Coastal New Jersey may see mostly rain, with some 5-10″ amounts over northern and western New Jersey; again the greatest focus for heavy wet snow is west of I-95.
Summary: The Confidence Level for at least 4-8″ of wet snow in Washington D.C. is a 7, on a scale of 1-10; but only a 5 in Philadelphia and 4 in metro New York. It looks like mainly rain in Boston, but over a foot of snow is possible well inland, over central Massachusetts.
Greg Hunt’s Unusually Cool U.S. Winter That Wasn’t. A harsh winter for the USA in terms of temperatures? Nope. Here’s an excerpt from readfearn.com: “…Even in a warming world, you’ll still get record cold events – it’s just that the hot ones are outnumbering the cold ones. In Australia, for example, for every record cold temperature there’s three record hot ones. In the US, a 2009 study found record high temperatures were outstripping record colds by two to one. I had a quick look at this unusually cold US winter which Greg Hunt alludes to. The government’s National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration has all the figures. Incidentally, January 2013 is the 335th consecutive month where global average temperatures have been above average. Final rankings for the US winter are not expected to be out for a week or so yet but, so far, the chilly winter turns out not to have been that chilly after all. In fact, the period November 2012 to January 2013 ranks 109th warmest in a record going back 118 years…”
Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States
Every day I sift through hundreds of stories, maps, graphics and meteorological web sites, trying to capture some of the most interesting weather nuggets, the stories behind the forecast. I’ll link to stories and share some of the web sites I use. I’m still passionate about the weather, have been ever since Tropical Storm Agnes flooded my home in Lancaster, PA in 1972. I’ve started 5 weather-related companies. “EarthWatch” created the world’s first 3-D weather graphics for TV stations – Steven Spielberg used our software in “Jurassic Park” and “Twister”. My last company, “Digital Cyclone”, personalized weather for cell phones. “My-Cast” was launched in 2001 and is still going strong on iPhone, Android and Blackberry. I sold DCI to Garmin in 2007 so I could focus on my latest venture: WeatherNation.
Twitter name: @pdouglasweather