An Oktoberfest of Weather: Wrapping Up a Wild Weekend of Weather; What’s Next?
Tuesday, October 8th, 2013
Late last week/weekend was pretty wild in the weather department. From blizzards across the High Plains to tornadoes in the Midwest to flooding in the Ohio Valley and wind damage in the Northeast. This early October snow was one for the books for many. Thanks to one of my family members, Lynn Garbel Seime for the picture near Rapid City, South Dakota, who just got her power back on and was able to send this picture. The near 3ft. of snow made for a great refrigerator, while the power was out.
Here are some of the higher tallies recently posted by the National Weather Service out of Rapid City, SD.
October Blizzard Hits The Record Books
“The October 4-5, 2013 Blizzard will go down in the record books as a mega storm for the Black Hills Region, and especially so for Rapid City. Below is a summary of the records set by this storm.”
This storm was also responsible for several rounds of severe weather. From tornadoes on Friday and Saturday to straight line wind damage on Sunday and Monday. Here is one of the tornadoes that was captured by Tanner Charles Schaaf near Wakefield, NE.
One of the hardest hit areas was in Wayne, NE where an EF4 tornado hit. There were reports of several injuries, but no fatalities!
Friday saw the most tornadoes in one day so far this October. According to the Storm Prediction Center, there were 18 PRELIMINARY tornado reports and another 2 on Saturday.
October Tornadoes Continued
According to the Storm Prediction Center, there have been 26 PRELIMINARY tornado reports so far this October. Climatology says that October averages nearly 60 tornadoes across the nation, so considering these numbers are through the first 7 days of the month, we’re right on track.
2013 Tornado Drought Continues
Even with the latest tornado spike, our 2013 tornado numbers have been quite low. According to the SPC, there have only been 767 PRELIMINARY tornadoes so far this year. This is quite a bit lower than what we had seen in 2012 and 2011 through October 7th.
Here’s another look at the tornado comparison. Note the black line or the 2013 tornado numbers and note how we’re sitting at the lowest number since 2005! The short term average (2005-2012) suggests that we should have seen nearly 1000 tornadoes through October 7th.
Our Next Pacific Storm
Our next Pacific storm is barreling into the western part of the country with another round of mountain snow and severe weather potential. The image below suggests the trough location late Thursday night/early Friday morning.
Thursday Severe Threat
Weather models are trending towards an unsettled outlook by PM Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for that time frame. Stay tuned for further updates…
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY THU AFTERNOON…AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE…LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NERN CO/SWRN NEB DURING THE DAY…WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM WRN NEB INTO THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES. STRONG SELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL BRING LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS NWWD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT AND AS FAR NW AS NERN CO…RESULTING IN A SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR SEVERE STORMS.
This next storm will also be responsible for some high elevation snow in the western half of the country. The image below suggests the GFS (American model) snow solution over the next few days. Also note the colors showing up over parts of California, where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued through Wednesday night. Elevations above 6000ft. may see 2″ to 5″+ snow there. Higher elevations in the central and northern Rockies could see tallies reaching 8″+.
Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your week.
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