The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is forecasting a moderate risk for severe weather today and into tonight for portions of the Southern Plains and Southeast. Another tornado outbreak is possible along with large hail and damaging winds. The following is the public discussion released by the SPC this morning at 11:50 CDT:
TORNADOES LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE - EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS - NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA - EASTERN TEXAS ALSO...A THREAT FOR OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. A POTENT UPPER LOW AND STRONG JET MAX WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS/LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT SHIFTING FROM EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AIR MASS...DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG...AND FAVOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS... NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS MORE LIKELY. STORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.