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Another Tropical Storm Could be Brewing In The Caribbean

The last few weeks have been relatively quiet, in what has turned out to be a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic basin.  But an area in the western Caribbean is showing some promise of developing into our next named tropical storm.

 

Right now, the National Hurricane Center has dubbed the system Invest-AL-93.  It’s a disorganized cluster of showers and storms to the east of Honduras and Nicaragua.  It should stay that way on Thursday.  But by Friday, as it moves away from land, and interacts more with the warm waters of the ocean, the storm could intensify.  It’s not a sure thing.  Right now, it has about a 40% chance of reaching tropical storm status over the next couple of days.

   

The potential path of the storm is very typical for October.  The general trend during October is storm formation in the western Caribbean, movement into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and then a shift to the northeast into the Atlantic Ocean.  The potential path of this particular system almost mirrors that track.

By Saturday night, the forecast has the center of the system over western Cuba.  Early Sunday morning, it will move over south Florida.  By late Sunday morning, a front will push the system out into the Atlantic Ocean.  Even if the system doesn’t reach tropical storm status, it will be a rain producer.  Western Cuba and south Florida will receive one to two inches of rain.  The system is projected to move through pretty quickly, thereby limiting rain totals and reducing the flooding threat.

If in fact it does become a tropical storm, it would be called Philippe.  That’s the next name on the list for the 2017 Atlantic season.

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs through November 30th.  By that point, ocean water temperatures will be much cooler, and the threat of hurricanes and tropical storms should be over until next year.

For WeatherNation:  Meteorologist Matt Monroe

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