All Weather News

Cold Vs. Warm: The Forecast Limerick

12 Aug 2013, 11:41 am

Let’s get the teaser out of the way, and see if you stick around after that…

 

Northern people were colder this year,

Northerners were mostly without heat,

Despite the cool weather,

Twas fright about whether,

The North would see warmth again soon.

 

While this is definitely not the best limerick ever written… and possibly violates a few of the rules, the key phrase is “The North would see warmth again soon.”

If you could add another couple of lines, perhaps they would sound like “And the South would see warmth move North,” or something along those lines… as that is what we’re looking for in the next week to week and a half.

Check out this map, depicting some of the warming for the Midwest & Northeast:

 

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook
6-10 Day Temperature Outlook

 

These are probabilities – not a straight forecast, but at this point 6-10 day forecasts can be talked about with at least *some* confidence, so that’s what we’re going to do.

Notice from Oklahoma through Arkansas and even into Mississippi: about a 60% chance of below-average temperatures.  That has to sound good to folks dealing with triple-digit and near-triple-digit temperatures for the past couple of weeks.

One cause for concern with this is future rainfall:

 

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook
6-10 Day Temperature Outlook

 

We’ll see how things pan out – just because an area will be below average or above average does not mean a boundary exists, it could just mean one constant air mass over, say, Kansas would be slightly below average for them, while in Minnesota that might be above average… But, nonetheless, rainfall in these areas (specifically, Kansas and Missouri) are a big concern.

Let’s explore more about the warming and warm-up for the Midwest (and also for the West, and the mountain West).

Let’s start by looking at temperatures a mile up (850mb in the atmosphere):

 

Wednesday Temperatures - 850mb or 1 mile high
Wednesday Temperatures - 850mb or 1 mile high

 

So this is basically a continuation of the trends we’ve been seeing throughout the summer: Upper-level low to the Northeast, heat bubble to the Southwest.  See those shades of green in the Northeast?  If you want warmth, then you want those *out of there!*

It *starts* to change, though, eventually.  Look a few days further out, and you’ll see what we mean:

 

Monday Temperatures - 850mb or 1 mile high
Monday Temperatures - 850mb or 1 mile high

 

Notice that by Monday we get more of a yellow-green blend in colors in the Northeast, and over the Midwest we get yellows… Those mean something!  If you were to drag a parcel of air from, say, over Minnesota, to the surface (1 mile of dragging, if you’re keeping score) – hypothetically that parcel of air could be close to 80 or so for highs.

Looking further ahead, we get more of a pattern shift, as well:

 

August 25th Temperatures - 850mb or 1 mile high
August 25th Temperatures - 850mb or 1 mile high

 

This would be Sunday, the 25th of August.  More warmth moves into the Midwest – while the West stays hot still.

It should be interesting to watch!  Are you fan of the heat, or would you rather have cool?  Maybe a better way to ask is this: low 70s and sun, or upper 80s and humid?

Tweet me at @ashafferWNTV – and we’ll have a conversation about it!  (Personally, in the summer I prefer heat but can enjoy cooler & non-humid days as well)

In the meantime, we are still watching our constant lagging frontal boundary impacting the rest of the nation…

 

 

WeatherNation Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer @ashafferWNTV

 

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