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CSU Increases Forecast for 2021 Hurricane Season

10 Jul 2021, 11:00 am

Today meteorologists and research scientists at Colorado State University (CSU) updated one of the season’s earliest and most well-respected hurricane outlooks. This follows an update that was issued in June. The update issued in June can be found here.

The latest predictions continue to anticipate this year’s hurricane season to be busier than average, increasing the number of named storms and hurricane. The update issued in June only increased the number of expected named storms.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU now anticipate 20 named storms, 9 of which becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes. This includes storms that have already formed.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU Research Scientist, explained the reasoning behind the above-average forecast, which includes above average temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, an active West African Monsoon, and the low probability for El Niño to develop.

In fact, a La Niña watch was issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, the same day CSU updated their forecast.

La Niña or ENSO neutral conditions typically favor active hurricane seasons since El Niño typically increases wind shear in the Atlantic, which helps to disrupt tropical development.

The active monsoon in West Africa has already led to several strong easterly waves emerging in the Atlantic, one of which produced Hurricane Elsa.

The monsoon typically leads to more tropical disturbances later in the season, especially in August and September.

In addition to the forecast for an above average number of storms, CSU also predicts an above average season in ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), Hurricane Days, and Major Hurricane Days. The forecast also predicts a 68% chance for a landfalling system for the entire east coast (this does not include the landfalls which have already occurred this season). You can read the report in its entirety here.

About the author
Erik Kostrzewa was born and raised in the state of Michigan; spending much of his life in the suburbs of Detroit. Erik attended the University of Michigan and earned a Bachelor’s Degr... Load Moreee in Earth Systems Science and Engineering with a concentration in Meteorology. His first on-air job was straight out of college in Lansing, Michigan at WLNS-TV. After a few years, he moved an hour west to Grand Rapids to continue his career at FOX17 news. While in the heart of the lower peninsula, Erik covered a wide variety of challenging weather from lake-effect snow to derechos. Erik definitely has an interesting last name which comes from his Polish descent. If you are wondering how it is pronounced, the easiest way to say it is “Ka-Stree-Va”. Erik is thrilled to forecast on a national scale at WeatherNation and experience an even wider range of weather in Colorado! He is also looking forward to experiencing his first 14er on one of the many mountains in the state. Follow Erik on Twitter and Facebook!