CSU Increases Forecast for 2021 Hurricane Season

news image
Special Stories
10 Jul 2021 11:00 AM
Today meteorologists and research scientists at Colorado State University (CSU) updated one of the season’s earliest and most well-respected hurricane outlooks. This follows an update that was issued in June. The update issued in June can be found here. The latest predictions continue to anticipate this year’s hurricane season to be busier than average, increasing the number of named storms and hurricane. The update issued in June only increased the number of expected named storms. Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU now anticipate 20 named storms, 9 of which becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes. This includes storms that have already formed. Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU Research Scientist, explained the reasoning behind the above-average forecast, which includes above average temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, an active West African Monsoon, and the low probability for El Niño to develop. [embed]https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1413168499292319749[/embed] In fact, a La Niña watch was issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, the same day CSU updated their forecast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mKwg1oj8UM&ab_channel=WeatherNation La Niña or ENSO neutral conditions typically favor active hurricane seasons since El Niño typically increases wind shear in the Atlantic, which helps to disrupt tropical development. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1413171518960390148 The active monsoon in West Africa has already led to several strong easterly waves emerging in the Atlantic, one of which produced Hurricane Elsa. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1413169757415788545 The monsoon typically leads to more tropical disturbances later in the season, especially in August and September. In addition to the forecast for an above average number of storms, CSU also predicts an above average season in ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), Hurricane Days, and Major Hurricane Days. The forecast also predicts a 68% chance for a landfalling system for the entire east coast (this does not include the landfalls which have already occurred this season). You can read the report in its entirety here.
All Weather News
More
Soggy Weekend Ahead for Southern California

Soggy Weekend Ahead for Southern California

Another storm system is bringing heavy rainfa

29 Mar 2024 3:35 PM
Multi-Day Severe Threat in the First Days of April

Multi-Day Severe Threat in the First Days of April

Spring typically brings active weather to the

29 Mar 2024 2:50 PM
Storms Possible in the Midwest/OH Valley Today

Storms Possible in the Midwest/OH Valley Today

Several systems will target the Midwest and M

29 Mar 2024 2:45 PM
Hot Temps & High Fire Danger in Texas, Plains

Hot Temps & High Fire Danger in Texas, Plains

Get ready for a roller coaster ride of temper

29 Mar 2024 2:40 PM
Easter Forecast: Who's Cracking Open Some Nice Weather

Easter Forecast: Who's Cracking Open Some Nice Weather

Some parts of the country have been dye-ing t

29 Mar 2024 2:35 PM
Heavy Rain & Snow Linger in New England

Heavy Rain & Snow Linger in New England

A strong low-pressure system in the eastern G

29 Mar 2024 2:15 PM
Total Solar Eclipse: 5 Things you Need to Know

Total Solar Eclipse: 5 Things you Need to Know

A total solar eclipse is coming! Here are the

29 Mar 2024 2:05 PM