All Weather News

Day 2 Moderate Risk: The Stats and NFL Games

16 Nov 2013, 2:31 pm

We have a threat of severe storms throughout the day Sunday, one which might affect a number of NFL games. As of this posting (Saturday afternoon), over 76.6 million people are under the threat of seeing severe storms – about half of which are under a MODERATE risk of severe storms, indicated in orange in the graphic above. This includes Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, and Louisville.

The reason we are seeing the severe weather chance is do to a combination of strong winds aloft, increasing moisture quickly flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico, and a strengthening low pressure center. With the combination of these factors, we are going to watch for damaging winds and tornadoes throughout the day.

Severe Risks in November

The Storm Prediction Center released this graphic earlier today showing previous Day 2 Moderate Risks since 1998. There has been 10 issued according to the SPC, the most recent in 2006.

According to the SPC, the highest probability of seeing any severe weather on November 17 (from 1982-2011) is across the south from Oklahoma and Texas into Alabama.

Here are the climatological tornado probabilities for November 17 – showing we can get severe weather & tornadoes into the Ohio Valley this late in the year.

NFL Forecasts

Four NFL games could be affected by storms tomorrow. Here are the current thoughts:

It looks like we’ll have storms in the Chicago area around gametime, which is Noon CT. Strong winds are also likely, with winds possibly gusting up to 45 mph during the game. We could definitely see some delays here.

Another good likelihood of strong storms during the game appears to be in Cincinnati, where the Bengals are hosting the Cleveland Browns. Good chances of delays to this game due to the storms.

Rain during the game looks possible in Pittsburgh, but timing is a little uncertain for the area. The game may be able to sneak in between two rounds of rain – one in the early morning, and another in the evening. Will have to watch for possible delays.

The last game that could be affected by storms is in Buffalo, but again timing of storms is questionable. Just like in Pittsburgh, the game may fall between rounds of storms.

Local NWS Briefings

For more reading, here are local briefings from NWS offices:

Stay Safe!

We’ll be monitoring the threat throughout the day Sunday here at WeatherNationTV with severe updates on TV and updates on our Twitter and Facebook pages. If you capture severe weather safely, you can share it with us on those platforms or by emailing us at photos@weathernationtv.com – just make sure to include your location!

Meteorologist D.J. Kayser
Follow me on Twitter at: @weathrlver

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