Could Erika Be Florida’s First Hurricane in 10 Years?

The forecast path of Tropical Storm Erika, as of now, brings the system right into southern Florida. An area that has dealt with their fair share of tropical weather, but has been lucky enough to avoid a storm of Hurricane strength making landfall in ten years.

Currently, Erika remains a tropical storm and is expected to have little growth over the next several days as it runs into some upper level shear. Shear is defined by the National Weather Service as variation in wind speed (speed shear) and/or direction (directional shear) over a short distance within the atmosphere.

After 72 hours Erika is expected to move into a more conductive atmosphere where intensity will be likely to increase again. The uncertainty of how the unfavorable atmosphere will impact the storm over the next three days will, in the end, determine the strength of Erika by the time of its forecast landfall (which current models are indicating as Monday).

Here is a look back at the tropical activity to make landfall in Florida over the last ten years.

Hurricane Wilma was the last storm at Hurricane strength to directly impact the state. Wilma made landfall on October 24, 2005 in Cape Romano, Florida shortly after strengthening to a Category 3 hurricane. Storms since have made landfall in the Sunshine State, but all as Tropical Storms.

Wilma

This year marks the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Wilma, the last hurricane to hit South Florida since October, 2005. pic.twitter.com/7rIwffyKLa

— Tri-Rail (@Tri_Rail) August 6, 2015

Hurricane Wilma pic.twitter.com/njmVluRbyq

— jow.ruly (@JowRuly) July 2, 2015

I was in a bunker at the NWS in Miami during Hurricane Wilma, where were you? Remember June 1. http://t.co/YD1Nn4Zrqx pic.twitter.com/gyzoc5Q6Hp

— Kimberly Miller (@KMillerWeather) May 29, 2015

@kathyannbryant @CoolCzech1 @Bugslayer57 @edmyers6417 Hurricane Wilma. Key West pic.twitter.com/uFtEc8KSGH

— Max McLeieer (@MMcLeieer) December 12, 2014

#FlashbackFriday The gym on Boca Chica Field 9 years ago today-Hurricane Wilma. Take your hurricane preps seriously! pic.twitter.com/ti9HjXVxx3

— NAS Key West (@NASKeyWest) October 24, 2014

Dennis

The hurricane caused 15 deaths and $2.23 billion in damage in the U.S. In Haiti, Dennis killed 56 people. pic.twitter.com/ThmD74RCOs

— Charles Apple (@charlesapple) July 10, 2015

@JebBush @CraigatFEMA #Hurricane Dennis makes landfall on the #Florida Panhandle #OTD 2005. Image @FLMemory pic.twitter.com/YvSXS1qdXI

— Jeffrey Bezore (@JeffreyBezore) July 10, 2015

Dennis was 2nd major #hurricane to hit #Pensacola area within 10 months (Ivan, 9/15/04) #2005hurricanes #10yearson pic.twitter.com/7QKkTH5qsk

— Mark C. Bove (@MarkCBove) July 10, 2015

Iconic damage photos from Major Hurricane #Dennis. Landfall in Santa Rosa Island, FL 10 years ago today. pic.twitter.com/oPctUscyNi

— Scot Pilie' (@ScotPilie_Wx) July 10, 2015

#Hurricane Dennis in USA: $1.8 bn econ, $1.25 bn insured loss. (MRNatCatSERVICE) #2005hurricanes #10yearson #flwx pic.twitter.com/rDeeX4pSuF

— Mark C. Bove (@MarkCBove) July 9, 2015

For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Tracey Anthony