First Week of Spring Wintry Conditions & Stronger Storms
Currently, there is broad upper level low pressure system churning around the pacific northwest region of the US. This system is yielding a rainy start to this week for those areas. Places like Seattle, WA seeing almost .75 of an inch of rain so far with more of tis moisture transitioning to snowfall for the Northern Cascades all the way to the Sierra Nevada’s tonight.
By Tuesday, this system swings across intermountain west bringing heavy snow for the Colorado Rockies by tomorrow. Developing surface low pressure will materialize east of the Rockies some time late Tuesday. This will be the added support for developing snow on the backside of this low for portions of the central plains, affecting Southern South Dakota all the way south into West Kansas beginning early Wednesday morning extending into Wednesday afternoon.
The warm sector of this system is likely to cause strong to severe storms across the Arklatex by later in the day Wednesday. Timing is still a bit uncertain as to when storms will fire. Nonetheless, we are looking for more of a linear severe- set-up here. In other words, a line of strong storms developing along and ahead of the surface cold front. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for W Arkansas, extreme NE Louisiana, and far eastern Texas. Primary concern being gusty winds and, at this time, a VERY small potential for an isolated spin-up tornado. At this juncture, dynamics only look to support a low end tornado threat; however, additional rain for some across Louisiana is the very last thing needed as many are still recovering from historic flood levels in recent days. Timing and intensity could certainly change as we get closer to the event.