All Weather News

Flooding concerns in Missouri and Arkansas?

5 Jun 2014, 10:11 pm

We’ve seen big – mostly beneficial – rains the last few days in the Ozark region of both Missouri and Arkansas in particular. But if the forecast holds, flooding could be a big concern here in parts of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.

We’ve got a series of disturbances rolling through the next few days, following a boundary layer sprawled out over the south-central portion of the country. These disturbances have been flying off the Rocky Mountains and jetting out east, causing significant winds and flooding as well along the way. Point out of all this weather jargon is: look out in a long line from Dodge City, Kansas to Memphis, Tennessee (and possibly as far east as Charlotte, North Carolina and Atlanta as well). For me, however, there’s one are to hone in on the next few days.

The one place I’d zero in on is the Springfield area. Springfield itself has received officially 2.45” of rain so far this month (average for month-to-date is 0.79”), but our radar estimated as high as six inches of rain right near Springfield from today’s first blast of rain, and here’s a look at how much rain we could be getting over the next few days, as estimated by the GFS model:

Screen Shot 2014-06-05 at 8.43.50 PM

What that map is saying is the widespread possibility of 3+” of rain over the next few days (everywhere you see pink), which would be a big problem in this part of the country.

The nature of the flooding is likely to be highly localized, depending on who gets hit hardest by individual thunderstorms, which are hard to pinpoint. But this general vicinity need to be on alert over the next few days for not just wind and hail, but flooding as well.

Your focus – as ours will be, too – should be on the potential wind and hail threat here in parts of Missouri the next few days. But if you live in a low-lying area here and/or at the base of a mountain perhaps prone to mudslides here in the Ozarks, be careful. Have an action plan and be ready to move on short notice in this part of the country this weekend.

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