Gearing up for Isaac and the RNC; Republican National Convention in Tampa, FL
Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012
Tropical Storm Isaac continues to drift west through the Leeward and Windward Islands with further intensification expected over the coming days. The more concerning part about Isaac in the near future throughout the Caribbean is heavy rain potential and flooding. Longer term is the potential for a strong hurricane nearing the southeastern tip of the U.S.
Not only are we keeping a close eye on Isaac, but Joyce may develop on his heels. Both storms are drifting west! It could be an active next several days/weeks.
Here’s Another Look…
The two counterclockwise areas of circulation drifting west across the Tropical Atlantic region are the aforementioned storms above.
Focusing on Isaac
“DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH…31 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING…AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON THURSDAY.
RAINFALL…TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.”
With spaghetti plots becoming a more frequent visitor to my weather blogs/shows… I actually got hungry for spaghetti and made it for dinner! NERD!!
A spaghetti plot refers to the plots of SEVERAL different model runs and at different times. It can get confusing, but keep in mind they all use their own sets of data/calculations/times/variables to come up with their solutions. The reason why it’s called a spaghetti plot is because it looks like a bunch of different colored spaghetti noodles!
The models can either be “On to Something” or “On Something” – We want consistency and conformity in every model… For now, the consensus is a forecast track toward Florida by late weekend/early next week.
Watch the Plots Yourself!
Thanks to umw.edu and googlemaps you get interactive with the spaghetti plots!
Just One Model Solution… The GFS
This particular model (06Z GFS) suggests a potentially dangerous outcome as a strong storm slides just west of the Gulf Coast of Florida. This would indicate significantly stronger wind/heavy rain/storm surge for the Keys, Ft. Myers, Tampa, St. Pete…
One Week From Today… GFS Solution
According to the 06Z GFS model, it puts Isaac just west of Tampa, FL as a 979mb storm, significant yes, but nowhere near the record low pressure set by Hurricane Wilma set in October 2005.
Hurricane Wilma in October 2005
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) aircraft measured a record-low air pressure of 882 millibars in the center of Hurricane Wilma, making it the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic basin. Wilma also broke records for the fastest development of a storm, going from tropical storm status to Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours.
RNC Fearing Isaac?
Interestingly, the Republican National Convention falls next weeks in Tampa, FL (August 27th-30). Officials say they already have plans in place in case Isaac threatens Tampa…
Emergency management officials are keeping watch on a tropical storm that could be swirling toward Florida during the Republican National Convention.
If the tropical disturbance churns out thunderstorms or becomes a hurricane, officials say they will follow standard emergency procedures for shelter and evacuation despite the additional 50,000 visitors and 15,000 protesters expected to be in town for the convention.”
Florida Already Seeing Heavy Rain
Thanks to @mattlopez313 for the soggy picture below out of Florida. A slow moving front across parts of Florida have allowed of several days of heavy rain already.
HPC 5 Day Rainfall Forecast
NOAA’s HPC 5 Day rainfall forecast still suggests 1″ to 2″ of rain possible for central and northern Florida with heavier amounts expected across the southern tip of Florida as Isaac nears by late weekend/early next week.
Thanks for checking in on this Wednesday, have a great rest of your week!
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV