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South Significant Severe Weather & Flooding Friday

9 Apr 2021, 7:00 pm

The active pattern for the South-Central and Southeastern U.S. will continue for the end of the week and this weekend. Severe storms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are likely, in addition to a risk for heavy rain and flash flooding.

Set-Up

Southerly flow will allow for abundant moisture to surge out of the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days.  This build-up of moisture will contribute to the risk for heavy rain and flash flooding. The moisture will also increase the instability and allow for a threat of severe weather as well.

Severe Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk (level 4, on a scale of 1 to 5) for severe storms for portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, while an enhanced risk stretches from Oklahoma through Alabama. Numerous tornadoes will be possible in the risk area, with a heightened risk (yellow) across I-20 in Louisiana and Mississippi.

Not only is there an increased risk for severe storms. There is also a higher probability of significant severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has now added at significant tornado threat for the overnight storms into southern Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Isolated supercell thunderstorms may develop out ahead of the squall line overnight. These have the potential of producing tornados of EF-2 or greater strength. The area shaded in pink/purple below could see thunderstorms produce hail stones upwards of two inches in diameter. The significant wind threat shaded in blue below could see long line segments of thunderstorms producing wind gusts greater than 70 mph.

Forecast

Isolated to scattered strong storms are likely to begin Friday afternoon. From there, thunderstorms will likely consolidate into line segments through the evening. Overnight, a large Line Echo Wave Pattern, or LEWP, will form. This will remain powerful through the overnight hours. It is crucial for people living in the area to have multiple ways to get severe alerts overnight.

Rainfall Forecast

The timing for the heavy showers and thunderstorms will be from Friday afternoon all the way into Saturday.  There are some indications that Saturday afternoon and evening could be active in many of these same areas. Heavy rain rates and consistent rain will make the risk of flooding strong…plus the delayed flooding from rising streams, creeks and rivers could also be an issue.

WeatherNation will be updating this forecast over the next several days, so be sure to check us out for the latest information.

 

About the author
Karissa is the Director of On-Air Operations at WeatherNation. Karissa grew up loving math and science, but really fell in love with Meteorology while attending the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. After two summers of storm chasing in the central plains, she knew that it was the career path for her. Standing in front of a thunderstorm and feeling the cool outflow knock her over was an e... Load Morexperience she will never forget. After two years at COD, she transferred to Metropolitan State University of Denver. Karissa graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology. Her high school and college speech and meteorology professors were extremely supportive and pushed her to succeed. Before joining the WeatherNation team, she previously worked as the Morning Meteorologist at KCAU-TV in Sioux City, Iowa and at WMBD-TV in Peoria, IL. She recently was part of a National Edward R. Murrow award winning team for breaking news for their coverage of the EF-4 tornado in Washington, Illinois. In her free time, Karissa enjoys cooking and trying new foods. She is a self proclaimed 'TV Junkie' who can get into just about any show. She is a die hard Chicago sports fan who loves attending professional sporting events.