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Higher Storm Total in Updated Colorado State Hurricane Forecast

1 Jun 2017, 2:28 pm

Meteorologists at Colorado State University have updated their 2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast and they now are predicting a near average tropical year. The season starts today, June 1st and ends November 30th.

The forecast now calls for 14 named storms (39 mph or higher), six hurricanes (74 mph or higher) and two major hurricanes reaching Category 3 strength or higher (111 mph and up). An average year is 12 names storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

[Credit: Colorado State University]

The forecast is similar to the outlook posted by the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center last week. It called for a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms, of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes, including 2 to 4 major hurricanes.

[Credit: Colorado State University]

The updated outlook states “We have increased our forecast and now believe that 2017 will have approximately average activity. The odds of a significant El Niño in 2017 have diminished somewhat, and portions of the tropical Atlantic have anomalously warmed over the past two months. While the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal, the far North Atlantic remains colder than normal, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

The previous forecast from Colorado State issued on April 6th had 11 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes reaching Category 3 strength or higher.

This is the 34th year in which the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has made forecasts of the upcoming season’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity. Developed by Dr. William Gray for the 1984 season, the forecasts are now issued by Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell.

For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels


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