The last few weeks have been generally quiet in the tropics, but one area is sparking interest before the hurricane season comes to an end this month. A tropical wave in the Western Caribbean Sea has been churning away for several days. It is fairly disorganized, but continues to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center is watching the area for a potential tropical system to form, giving it a 60% chance for formation in the next 5 days. Water temperatures remain warm in the area, still in the 80s.
Broad area of low pressure expected to form over SW Caribbean Sea during next day or two. A tropical depression could form by late in week. pic.twitter.com/M4VDcQC71C
— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) November 14, 2016
Little change in the system is expected through mid-week, but later this week development is possible. Upper level winds over the system are relaxing and expected to lower further, which may give the thunderstorms a chance to develop a closed low pressure center.
Radar imagery from the tropics show plenty of thunderstorms, but no centered organization.
Panama radar from the Panama Canal Authority
Nicaragua radar from Corporacion Centroamericana de Servicios de Navegacion Aerea Navegacion
Jamaica radar from Meteorological Service of Jamaica
If the storm forms into the 15th of the season, its name would be Otto.
For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels