Ice in the Upper Midwest (NOAA predicts drought to persist over much of western half of USA into April)
Winter Weather Advisory Metro Area – Winter Storm Warning Southeastern MN. The main concern today is freezing rain, rain freezing on contact with cold surfaces, especially south/east of MSP. Here’s the latest from the Twin Cities NWS:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1118 PM CST SAT JAN 26 2013 ...WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... .A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME IS EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES AND EAU CLAIRE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
3 PM Bufkit Sounding. The predicted sounding (temperature profile aloft) this afternoon shows a layer of air above 32 F. about 3,000 to 5,000 feet above the ground, capable of turning snow over to rain; rain that may freeze on contact with surfaces colder than 32 F.
Two Bursts Of Precipitation. The Bufkit timeline reads from right to left (pretend you’re in Beijing). The red bars signify freezing rain, ending as an inch or so of slush this evening. Most of Monday looks dry, but another burst of wet snow is expected Monday night, maybe an inch or two. Then it turns (much) colder again.
72 Hour Snowfall Prediction. WSI’s 12 km. RPM model shows parts of the Twin ities picking up 1-2″ of (slushy) snow tonight, again Monday night, with greater amounts from Eau Claire to Rhinelander and Green Bay, as much as 3-5″ for central and northern Wisconsin, deeper into the cold air. Some 4″ amounts are possible by Tuesday morning over the BWCA as well.
Low Snowfall Raises Concerns About Drought Recovery. Climate Central has the story – here’s an excerpt: “…The drought because even more entrenched in some of the longest suffering areas, as impacts intensified slightly in Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas, where thousands of square miles remain bone dry. In the west, parts of which have seen milder-than-average temperatures and below-average snowfall since the start of the year, the low snowpack in the mountains is beginning to concern experts about whether this spring will bring enough sustained snowmelt to restore soil moisture and vegetation, and prevent a repeat of 2012’s severe wildfire season…
Graphic above shows 180 day precipitation departure from normal, courtesy of NOAA and Climate Central.
Improving Drought Conditions Over Upper Midwest? NOAA’s latest outlook seems a bit bolder, and more confident, showing predicted improvement over all of Minnesota by late April, but drought conditions lingering just to our south and west. I hope NOAA is correct on this call; I see no evidence of a shift in the pattern. One bit of good news: no La Nina this spring, no cooling phase in the Pacific, which correlates with more extreme drought downwind over the Plains.
Frequency of -40F Up North. Click here to see a YouTube clip, explaining the many benefits of cold air, and how -40 F. up north can innoculate Minnesota’s boreal forest from pests, including beetles. Following up on the column above I wanted to share the comments e-mailed to me from Minnesota climate expert Mark Seeley:
From a cursory look at our state data base, I selected 8 northern Minnesota climate stations (Baudette, Roseau, International Falls, Big Falls, Itasca State Park, Warroad, Thorhult, and Waskish) with nearly complete histories of daily measurements from 1951 to present. Then I compared the frequency of -40 F or colder over the periods 1951-1980 versus 1981-2010. Seven of the eight climate stations showed a decrease in frequency ranging from 25 percent to over 60 percent fewer occurrences in the 1981-2010 period. The only one that showed an increase in frequency was Waskish, but that station may have moved at one time. Examples of the change in frequency: Itasca State Park recorded 17 nights of -40 F or colder from 1951-1980, and only 11 since 1981 (they have reported no such readings since 1997); Warroad recorded 16 nights of -40 F or colder from 1951-1980, but only 10 since 1981.”
More on Vulnerability of Minnesota’s North Woods and BWCA to Pests In A Warming Climate. Here is more detail from Lee Frelich, at the University of Minnesota’s Center for Hardwood Ecology:
Mountain pine beetle, which has been shown to infest jack pine at its western range limit in Canada, is killed off by -40 F degree temperatures. This is probably why the insect never made its way to Minnesota from the Rocky Mountains – it can’t cross the Great Plains, where there are no trees, and can’t cross the southern boreal forest across Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba to get to Minnesota as long as periods of -40 degree weather occur there. However, that could change with a warmer climate and less frequent occurrences of -40 in the southern boreal forest.
Crocodile Warning! I think that’s just about the only thing I haven’t seen crawled at the bottom of the TV screen in the last couple of years. Details from Silicon Valley’s Mercury News.
Climate Change Views Swayed By Weather, Research Finds. NBC News has the story, here’s an excerpt: “…Independent voters shift their views on climate change with the weather, new research suggests. During cold snaps, Independents tend to be more skeptical of human-caused global warming than they are on unseasonably warm days, which seem to make them believers, according to a study published in the journal Weather, Climate, and Society. Democrats and Republicans stuck to their climate-change beliefs regardless of short-term weather changes. “Independent voters were less likely to believe that climate change was caused by humans on unseasonably cool days, and more likely to believe that climate change was caused by humans on unseasonably warm days,” said study author Lawrence Hamilton, a sociologist at the University of New Hampshire, in a statement…”
Photo credit above: John Gress / Reuters. “Chicago Fire Department Lieutenant Charley De Jesus walks around an ice-covered warehouse that caught fire Tuesday night in Chicago January 23, 2013.”
Here’s an eye-opening story that hasn’t got much play in U.S. mainstream media. It’s getting a lot of play in Europe press though. Maybe media outlets are afraid of antagonizing all those fossil fuel advertising dollars?
Dollars For Deniers: Big Oil Funds Climate Science Denialism. I guess half a BILLION dollars buys a fair number of bloggers, pseudo-scientists and “think tanks” capable of keeping confusion and doubt alive, as reported at Climate Change: The Next Generation. Here’s an excerpt: “…we’ve known for some time that Big Oil channels money to Big Denialism to support a variety of efforts, including projects to ruin science education in schools, to pa people to show up at demonstrations, to fund “research” that confuses, if not attempts (unsuccessfully) to throw false wrenches in the intricate and vital scientific machine. And now, we learn that some of these connections are more direct than previously thought, and involve much larger sums of money than most had imagined. According to Steve Conner at The Independent (U.K.):
A secretive funding organisation in the United States that guarantees anonymity for its billionaire donors has emerged as a major operator in the climate “counter movement” to undermine the science of global warming…The Donors Trust, along with its sister group Donors Capital Fund, based in Alexandria, Virginia, is funnelling millions of dollars into the effort to cast doubt on climate change without revealing the identities of its wealthy backers or that they have links to the fossil fuel industry.
In An Era Of Climate Change, Where Will The Fish, And The Money, Go? Minnesotans love to fish (hardly a bulletin), but last summer it was so hot that many fish died in overheated lakes. A fluke, or a sign of summers to come? Here’s an excerpt of a story at Popular Science that caught my eye – focusing on recent shifts and trends seen in Arctic waters: “Like the American pika and some other land-based creatures, fish are on the move as they try to adapt to a changing climate. One place this is happening is the seas surrounding the Arctic Ocean. But precisely how fast, in what direction, and to what effect the fish will migrate from their home turf is a big unknown….The seas around the Arctic Ocean are estimated to host at least 20 percent of all the fish in the world’s seas. Aside from their economic promise the northern seas could also play a big role in contributing to global food security. “The world’s growing population means need more access to food resources,” Lisbeth Berg Hansen, Norway’s Minister of Fisheries and Coastal Affairs, told the Arctic Frontiers conference I’m attending this week in the northern Norwegian city of Tromso….”
Image credit above: “A map of current and projected Arctic conditions.” IPCC
The Effects Of Climate Change Have Arrived Ahead Of Schedule. Here’s a snippet of an Op-Ed at The Washington Post: “…Everyone from small to large businesses, from local to state governments are now factoring climate change into their planning. A local architect told me the other day that there are no stock gutters that have the capacity to handle the run-off from today’s more intense downpours. In corporate board rooms, climate change is now an issue discussed in strategic business plans and governments are wondering how they are going to possibly afford to pay for storm clean-ups and the economic loss caused by floods and drought. In New York City alone, the two main emergency rooms that serve lower Manhattan were barely up and running two months after Sandy and the money needed to repair the city’s infrastructure is a mind-blowing amount, not even accounting for the money necessary to fortify it against the next storm. The impact of climate change has arrived ahead of schedule, and the gulf between reality and the climate deniers has widened….”
NASA Retirees Appeal To Their Own Lack Of Climate Authority. Who do you believe, a retired astronaut, or thousands of climate scientists, all saying pretty much the same thing. Hmmm. Let me think that over. Details from Skeptical Science: “…Now in January of 2013, a group of 20 “Apollo era NASA retirees” has put together a rudimentary climate “report” and issued a press release declaring that they have decided human-caused global warming is not “settled” and is nothing to worry about. This time around they have not listed the 20 individuals who contributed to this project, but have simply described the group as being:
“…comprised of renowned space scientists with formal educational and decades career involvement in engineering, physics, chemistry, astrophysics, geophysics, geology and meteorology. Many of these scientists have Ph.Ds”
Make Climate Change A Priority. Here’s a portion of an Op-Ed (appeal) from the President of the World Bank at The Washington Post: “…If there is no action soon, the future will become bleak. The World Bank Group released a reportin November that concluded that the world could warm by 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) by the end of this century if concerted action is not taken now. A world that warm means seas would rise 1.5 to 3 feet, putting at risk hundreds of millions of city dwellers globally. It would mean that storms once dubbed “once in a century” would become common, perhaps occurring every year. And it would mean that much of the United States, from Los Angeles to Kansas to the nation’s capital, would feel like an unbearable oven in the summer….”
In Wall Street Journal Op-Ed Bjorn Lomborg Urges Delay With Misleading Stats. Here’s an excerpt from Climate Science Watch: “…Lomborg makes many statements that almost all climate scientists would agree with. These include:
- Investments in hurricane resilience should be increased due to projected increases in storm intensity.
- In the long run, the world needs to cut carbon dioxide emissions.
- Investments in renewable energy technology R&D should be dramatically increased.
However, Lomborg ends these common-sense recommendations with the conclusion that current investments in climate mitigation, including renewable energy subsidies, are wasteful. He uses a series of distracting and misleading statements about trends in extreme weather to minimize the risks we face and delay action…”
Study Finds We Still Believe Untruths, Even After Instant Online Corrections. I found this to be an interesting nugget of confirmation bias, courtesy of Tech Crunch; here’s an excerpt: “If you’ve ever wondered why birthers, inside jobbers, and other conspiracy theorists won’t simply take the truth at face value, two researchers at OSU have found that we tend to ignore – and reject – instant corrections to data. The study, performed by R. Kelly Garrett and Brian Weeks, examined what happens when untruthful information is immediately corrected in a news story. While some programs claim to call out false information automatically, such systems make users “more resistant to factual information.” That’s right: the more truth we read, the more we tend to believe strongly-held lies. “Humans aren’t vessels into which you can just pour accurate information,” said Garrett. “Correcting misperceptions is really a persuasion task. You have to convince people that, while there are competing claims, one claim is clearly more accurate…”
Welcome to the WeatherNation blog. Every day I sift through hundreds of stories, maps, graphics and meteorological web sites, trying to capture some of the most interesting weather nuggets, the stories behind the forecast. I’ll link to stories and share some of the web sites I use. I’m still passionate about the weather, have been ever since Tropical Storm Agnes flooded my home in Lancaster, PA in 1972. I’ve started 5 weather-related companies. “EarthWatch” created the world’s first 3-D weather graphics for TV stations – Steven Spielberg used our software in “Jurassic Park” and “Twister”. My last company, “Digital Cyclone”, personalized weather for cell phones. “My-Cast” was launched in 2001 and is still going strong on iPhone, Android and Blackberry. I sold DCI to Garmin in 2007 so I could focus on my latest venture: WeatherNation. I also write a daily weather column for The Star Tribune startribune.