Increasing Snow Chances for the Dakotas and Minnesota Thursday
It’s that time of the year when we start to seeing areas of low pressure move out of southern Canada and produce snow in the northern states. This time it looks like the highest snow chances for Thursday and Friday will be in the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
An area of low pressure over Alberta Canada will continue to move southeast into the Northern Plains and the Upper-Midwest Thursday and Friday. This system will have enough cold air (especially west of the low) to produce accumulating snow.
Questions with the Forecast
Will there be enough cold air?
West of the low it looks like there will be enough cold air for snow…east of the low there could be more rain at first with a gradual change over for snow. The timing of the changeover will be important…that will be a big factor in accumulation numbers.
Who will see the most snow?
Right now it looks like the best chance for a long duration of snow will be in northeast Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the western UP of Michigan. Temperatures might now be cold enough in the eastern UP and eastern Wisconsin for any significant snow.
What are the Forecast Models Showing?
It looks like all the forecast models are in agreement on an area of low pressure moving into the northern part of the U.S., but they are not in agreement on the snowfall potential and the temperature forecast. Here is a look at what some of the models are showing.
BAMS (Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems)-Our main forecast model at WeatherNation
NAM (North American Mesoscale)
GFS(Global Forecast System)
The snowfall forecasts differ in amounts, but the they are all showing accumulating snow. So the big thing that we can take away from this forecast is that snow is likely…it’s just too early determine exact amounts at this time with all the question marks with the track and temperatures.
The latest timing will be from west to east Thursday morning through Friday.
Winter storm watches for blizzard conditions are already in effect for eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota. These watches will likely extend into more counties through the day. A winter storm watch for blizzard conditions means there is potential for falling and/or blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibility. Dangerous travel is expected with the potential of whiteout conditions.
WeatherNation will be monitoring this winter system and keep you updated on-air and online.