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Javier Rain Could Flood Southwest

The threat for flooding rains for the desert southwest will increase toward the middle of the week as moisture from Tropical Storm Javier moves into the region.

As of Monday afternoon, Tropical Storm Javier remained relatively unorganized, but with a projected track close to the Baja California peninsula. Tropical storm warnings remained in place for the southern edge of the peninsula with tropical storm watches expanding north by a few hundred miles.

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A ridge of high pressure over Texas is partially responsible for the track of Tropical Storm Javier. The current forecast takes the storm over the Baja California peninsula of Mexico, where it is eventually expected to lose its tropical characteristics.

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The remnants of Javier is expected to be pulled into the desert southwest toward midweek, threatening many cities with heavy rain.

Monsoon storms have been responsible for flash flooding across the southwest over the last few weeks.

The Phoenix metro area has been hit especially hard over the last week with flash flooding. Several water rescues were reported on Aug. 5 across the Scottsdale, AZ area after slow-moving storms produced flash flooding.

As of Monday morning, Scottsdale, AZ has received 1.3″ of rain since Aug 1– a whopping 1.05″ above average.

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The threat for flash flooding will become more widespread by the middle of the week across the desert southwest as the remnants of Javier enhance the amount of water vapor over the area.

The threat will be highest on Wednesday across the four corner states. A shift in winds will bring drier conditions to the area by Friday.

Flash flooding is a life threatening situation. Just one foot of water will float many vehicles and two feet of rushing water will sweep away most vehicles, even SUVs.
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Monsoonal storms are notorious for kicking up dust ahead of storms, leading to reduced visibility on roadways.
Residents and visitors should monitor the forecast should flash flooding develop.

For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Nick Merianos

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