Long Range Outlook for April to June
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) at the National Weather Service has issued a new 90 day forecast. It covers the upcoming period from April to June. It calls for above average temperatures throughout most of the nation, especially in the East and South. Wetter than normal conditions are possible along the Gulf Coast and High Plains.
Our latest seasonal outlook for April-June 2017. Warmer-than-normal conditions are favored over much of the southern and eastern U.S. pic.twitter.com/AHKVWZg38y
— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) March 16, 2017
The forecast does not have any areas of colder than normal temperatures or below average precipitation anywhere in the lower 48 states.
The CPC says that atmospheric and oceanic observations indicate that neutral conditions are now in place, meaning there is no El Nino or La Nina. Model guidance favors these conditions to continue for the next couple of months, with the potential of an El Nino setting in longer term. Check out our article here for more information on the El Nino possibly returning in the near future.
During an El Niño event, the surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than usual. That change is intimately tied to the atmosphere and to the winds blowing over the vast Pacific. Easterly trade winds (which blow from the Americas toward Asia) falter and can even turn around into westerlies. This allows great masses of warm water to slosh from the western Pacific toward the Americas. It also reduces the upwelling of cooler, nutrient-rich waters from the deep—shutting down or reversing ocean currents along the equator and along the west coast of South and Central America.
For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels