MCS Fest… Significant Damaging Wind Threat(s) The Next Several Days
Thursday, June 20th, 2013
I’m sure you’ve heard of a grassy butte, but have you ever heard of an animal butte? Thanks to Friends of Saguaro National Park Facebook page for the image below
Look closely… you can actually see several animal tails! A family of animal buttes.
Thank You Barry Much!
Earlier Thursday morning Tropical Storm Barry made landfall with the eastern coast of central Mexico. The biggest threat with our 2nd named storm of the season is rainfall.
Significant Wind Threat
The main concern over the next several days is going to be a major wind threat, especially during the overnight hours when clusters of storms will likely develop into a line of storms & bowing structures. Heavy rain will also accompany these storms through the overnight hours.
The image below (courtesy SPC) is old, but is comparable to what will likely be seen with some of the strong straight lined wind producing storms over the next several days.
Significant Wind Threat Thursday Night
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather across parts of the Midwest for Thursday/AM Friday. The main threat looks to be large and and especially large hail. The image below was the satellite midday Thursday with damaging wind threat potential overlaid. According to the SPC, the hatched area over the eastern Dakotas and west central Minnesota is the area of most concern overnight tonight.
Noisy Night Ahead
A simulated radar for late tonight/early Friday morning suggests a large line of thunderstorms rolling across Minnesota. The biggest threat with these storms would be damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The image below shows RPM’s simulated radar solution by 2am CDT Friday.
Slow Moving Low
The Pacific low pressure system in the Northwest drifting slowly across the international border will stall across the High Plains over the next few days and keep the threat for showers/storms in the forecast across the Midwest through the weekend. That trough is helping to open up the Gulf of Mexico… Hot and humid conditions have returned to central part of the country and thunderstorms will develop on the northern periphery of the extreme heat.
CAPE – Storm Energy
The image below shows CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy, which suggests how much energy is available for thunderstorm development. Red colors would indicate the potential for explosive development if certain conditions are met. Orange/yellow colors are also sufficient for strong/severe storms giving certain conditions. Look at how much potential energy there is across the middle part of the country! Keep in mind also that much of the central and southern part of the country will be “Capped” due to temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere being too warm; this is pretty typical in the summer month. Generally, strong to severe thunderstorms develop in the northern periphery of the extreme heat, where temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere are just cool enough to break the cap.
Severe Threat Friday
Severe Threat Saturday
Heavy Rainfall Forecast
NOAA’s HPC 3 day precipitation forecast suggests copious amounts of rainfall possible over the next several days with this convective potential. The forecast is 2″ to 3″+ over a wide area, but some could see localized areas of 5″ !!
Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your weekend
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