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Meteorological Summer’s Precip Outlook

31 May 2014, 2:56 pm

5-31_1222_RSE_Charleston, SC_Flooded Street_IN_cmac1710

This was taken earlier today in Charleston, SC, where thunderstorms popped up this afternoon.  Photo from Instagram account, cmac1710.

The calendar is about to turn the page from May to June, and as it does so, we continue to see temps trending warmer, the days getting longer, and the air feeling more humid, as Summer-like conditions start to become more frequent.  Astronomically speaking, as based on our calendar, Summer arrives on June 21st (Sat.) at 4:41AM ET, but meteorologically, Summer starts on June 1st.   The Climate Predicition Center issues out their projected forecasts for both the next month and the next three months in terms of precipitation and temperatures.  Fellow meteorologist Gretchen Mishek (@GMishekWNTV) covered the temperature side of things yesterday in her blog, so today, I’ll be taking a look at what areas will see alot of rain and where there will be more dry days than not.

 

april 2014 precip departure

First, before we look at the outlook, lets take a glance at what has happened, by looking at snapshot of Spring, with the month of April’s rainfall departure from average.  In April, we saw a ton of rain fall across the Gulf Coast states of Mississippi to northern Florida, as well as in the upper Midwest and in the Ohio River Valley.  There was also plenty of rain that fell from the Philadelphia, PA area to Richmond, VA.  Where there was a deficit of shower activity, was in the Southern Plains, Southwest and Northern California.  There also other pockets of dry conditions in New England and in southern Florida.


PENSACOLA, FL: PRECIPITATION (INCHES)

TOTALS         E29.53              4.32   25.21     4.60
DAILY AVG.       0.98              0.14    0.84     0.15
DAYS >= .01         9               6.5     2.5        7
DAYS >= .10         8               4.4     3.6        6
DAYS >= .50         8               2.5     5.5        3
DAYS >= 1.00        5               1.4     3.6        3
GREATEST
 24 HR. TOTAL  E15.55   04/29 TO 04/29

>> NOTE: PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR 04/29 AND 04/30 WERE ESTIMATED 
FROM NEARBY WSR-88D DUAL POL RADAR DATA DUE TO A POWER FAILURE 
ON THE AUTOMATED OBSERVING SYSTEM AT PNS ON THE EVENING OF 04/29. 

There was so much rain that fell in northern Florida, for example, that cities such as Pensacola, saw their wettest day ever, with over 15″ falling.  So much rain fell that streets became rivers and power outages started to pop up.  That is why the rain gauge failed and only a radar-estimated rainfall total could be surmised.

 

folsom lake ca - Rich Pedroncell - AP

It was the opposite side of things out in the west.  The historic drought in California continued to be an issue, and bodies of water, such as Folsom Lake, shriveled up into a shadow of their former selves.  (Photo  courtesy of Rich Pedroncelli via AP).

 

So lets see how the forecast is going to pan out for precipitation in June.

june precip

The nation’s heartland has the chance for seeing above average amounts of shower activity, much like the Southeast, and into Florida.  Where it will trend to be drier, is northern Minnesota, and across the Great Lakes towards Lake Ontario.  Also the southeast portion of Alaska, in places like Juneau, will be drier than normal.  While everywhere else, there is an equal chance of seeing dry days to wet days.

 

june july august precip

When we look out for the whole Meteorological Summer, June-August, we see that some of the same states that have a potential for a wet June, could see the entire Summer to be wetter than average.  That area has been highlighted on both maps in BLUE.  In RED on both maps, is where there is a chance for less rainfall to fall over the first month and into the whole Summer.  That area is mainly in southeastern Alaska.

 

 

drought outlook

The drought outlook for June does not look well for those areas that will not be seeing much rainfall.  The drought looks to be holding on to the Southwest, much of the Southern Plains and into the Northwest as well.

 

7 day precip

In the first seven days in June, these are the areas where forecasted storms will roll through, producing several inches of rain in some spots.  Such as the upper Midwest and in the central Gulf Coast area.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Meteorologist Addison Green ~ @agreenWNTV

Addison Blog Profile Pic

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