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Midwest Snow? Where it could go, where it might go, and where it probably will go…

4 Nov 2013, 11:21 am
Diesel The Pup - Loving snow:  Thanks to Jiminy Peak via Facebook
Diesel The Pup - Loving snow: Thanks to Jiminy Peak via Facebook


Hopefully you like snow as much as this dog in the picture above does.  That is, unless you find yourself in one of the snow-free zones around the nation.

The snow has left many question marks – and one of which is “Will it snow?”  In fact, if you live in western Nebraska, northwestern Iowa, or Minneapolis or Southern/Central Minnesota.
Here is the  view directly from the ECMWF, or the European extended forecast model for accumulated precip – both snow & rain.


Raw, Un-Adjusted ECMWF Snow/Rain
Raw, Un-Adjusted ECMWF Snow/Rain


The European model has been quite “gung-ho” on the snowfall tallies, of late.  It’ll be interesting, because I rather prefer to trust the ECMWF (European) model, but I am leery of the snowfall totals.

A more “reasonable” view (and I put this in quotes, because until we get the snow and the storm leaves, you can’t completely throw out any model’s views) is seen with the high resolution RPM computer model.



Judging from that model view above, Minneapolis could be looking at near-2″ snowfall tallies, with some higher totals in the southern suburbs and into NW Iowa and sections of Nebraska.

That model seems to take the view of what I’m calling option B – seen below.


Option B
Option B


Option B is the same run as the original ECMWF/European model I showed a few images above – but this time I shaved off some of the snow, and slid it south.  The actual physics behind this?  You’d have the moisture a little further south, and the cold air in roughly the same place.  That seems fairly possible & maybe even probable.

Another view, called Option C, showed a different picture:


Option C
Option C


That would bring the moisture AND cold air further north.  The scary thing (if you live in those areas) about option C?  If you’re bringing the moisture further north – and keeping cold air in place – that could mean much higher snowfall totals!

All of this will be closely watched by us here at WeatherNation, so stay tuned!

WeatherNation Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer @ashafferWNTV


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