All Weather News

Moderate Risk For Severe Weather: What Does That Mean?

2 Apr 2014, 10:53 am

We’re talking about a “Moderate Risk” for severe weather in the middle of the nation.
Here is the map, as of this Wednesday morning:



So what *IS* a moderate risk for severe weather?  What is the definition, and how does one define a slight or high risk?

These are the definitions, as per the Storm Prediction Center:


Slight risk: Severe thunderstorms are expected to affect between 2 and 5 percent of the area. A slight risk generally implies that severe weather events are expected to be isolated.

Moderate risk: Severe thunderstorms are expected to affect between 5 and 10 percent of the area. A moderate risk indicates the possibility of a significant severe weather episode.

High risk: Severe weather is expected to affect more than 10 percent of the area. A high risk is rare, and implies an unusually dangerous situation and usually the possibility of a major severe weather outbreak.


High risk days are very rare, and hopefully we can avoid any (which is not likely) this upcoming severe weather season.

Oklahoma City is the king of severe weather... right? So how many average slight risks and moderate risks do they see per year?

Keep in mind that there are other categories within a severe weather risk, like probabilities of hail, high winds, or tornadoes.


We’ll hope for the best, but definitely stay sky aware and stay safe!

WeatherNation Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer @ashafferWNTV

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