The active weather pattern continues: Cold -> Warm -> Storms, Cold -> Warm -> Storms, etc. It goes on and on. Eventually we’ll get a high pressure ridge that will push storms into Canada for a while… but in the meantime, we’ve certainly been very active.
With so many storms lately, it’d be nice to see some calm weather, right? Unfortunately that isn’t the case. We have an area of low pressure coming out of Montana and Wyoming today – moving east. That looks to dredge up more moisture today, and even more for tomorrow across some of the hardest hit regions from the past two weeks. Here is a look at how the regions of low pressure to the North are looking to move:
Another slow progression of low pressure this week. It’s unfortunate – because that will likely bring on another week of activity severe weather-wise.
One big question mark with today’s severe threat is moisture content, that is why there is such a small & narrow risk region (the region highlighted in yellow). Should more robust moisture move in, you could definitely see another batch of strong to severe storms and not just a couple of isolated storms.
Tomorrow things start to get more interesting again. 2 days of return flow bringing Gulf moisture back into the Plains states will allow more storms to fire off – and add to that a deepening secondary low forming closer to northern Texas tomorrow:
The interesting thing will be to watch for more potential tornadoes, as well as an upgrade of the risk, heading into tomorrow. Here is the Day 2 (Tuesday – in this case) severe threat, as of 10:30AM central time:
With a potentially deepening circulating (intensifying) near the Texas & OK panhandles, it will definitely be cause for concern if enough moisture and instability start to show up.
You can see the moisture returning to Oklahoma and beyond pretty clearly in this model forecast image – keep in mind, though, that models are not always (and sometimes are rarely) right. That would be your big obvious question mark – otherwise, you’re also looking at a lack of upper-level winds & fairly light surface winds that would detract from storm growth potential. Let’s hope that those question marks stay that way – and weak storms instead of strong ones form!
WeatherNation Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer @ashafferWNTV