Green Bay Weather. Perfect weather for a Vikings victory. Will lightning strike twice, within the same week? The spread is 8 points, but I’m thinking….upset. Stranger things have happened – think positive. Weather should be a non-issue, a gametime temperature around 20-22 F. with a wind chill in the mid teens. Balmy for GRB. A few flurries are possible later tonight, maybe a dusting in Green Bay. More details from NOAA.
More Data On The January Thaw. Dr. Mark Seeley has some insight into the (almost) annual upward blip in temperatures in his weekly WeatherTalk Newsletter: “…Most residents of the Twin Cities area consider the January thaw to be a given each year. They know it will come, just not precisely when. This time around it looks like next Monday through Thursday (Jan 7-10) may bring a thaw period. Indeed for many central and southern Minnesota locations a January thaw is quite common. The definition of a January thaw is variable. Some consider it to be any single day with a temperature above 32 degrees F. But consequences associated with a January thaw, like loss of snow cover, melting and drying of street surfaces and sidewalks, softening of lake ice, etc are generally not realized unless temperatures rise above the freezing mark for two or more days. Using this as a sorting criteria we can look at the historical frequency of such temperatures for various locations in Minnesota. These frequencies of January thaws (listed below) indeed show great reliability in most of southern Minnesota, and even parts of central Minnesota, but more like a 50/50 probability in the northern sections of the state…”
Weather Story. The lTwin Cities office of the National Weather Service provided the graphic above, showing Minnesota in-between branches of the jet stream, a moist southerly river of high-speed air guiding storms well south of Minnesota, the northern branch blowing to our north, something of a quiet (Pacific) no-man’s land over the Upper Midwest.
Thursday Slop-Storm? It’s still too early to get specific, but the ECMWF model shows a moisture-laden southern storm tracking just south/east of Minnesota toward the end of next week. A rain-snow mix is possible over Minnesota, probably enough warm air aloft to prevent widespread heavy snowfall over the Twin Cities. It’s too early to say with any confidence – parts of central and western Minnesota may see accumulating snow on Thursday. Map above valid Thursday evening courtesy of WSI.
An Icy Landscape. NASA’s 250 meter resolution MODIS imagery shows the dark gray smudge of the Twin Cities metro. Flat, undeveloped farmland shows up as bright white, as does Lake Minnetonka and the Inner Lakes south of Minneapolis.
“Surreal Warmth” in 2012. Here’s another 2:30 minute video recap on YouTube, looking back at the extraordinary warmth of 2012, courtesy of WeatherNation TV.
Warm Year: 2012. Here’s an excerpt of a great overview of record warmth across the great state of Minnesota last year – courtesy of the Minnesota Climatology Working Group: “2012 will finish in a tie with 1931 as the warmest year on record in the Twin Cities and will range from the warmest to third warmest on record depending on the location around the region. For so long, it appeared like 2012 would be the warmest year on record for the Twin Cities, but then winter decided to arrive as if on cue on December 21 and since then temperatures have been mostly below normal. As a result, the average temperature for the Twin Cities for 2012 will wind up to be 50.8 degrees, the same as the 50.8 degrees recorded in 1931. The 1981-2010 average temperature for the year is 46.3 degrees so 2012 will finish 4.5 degrees above normal. Every month of 2012 was above normal except October which finished 1.4 degrees below normal. March 2012 was 15.5 degrees above normal and greatly assisted in lifting the average temperature for 2012. The hottest day of 2012 in the Twin Cities was 102 degrees on July 6 and the coldest temperature of the year was -11 on January 19.”
Twin Cities (1873-2012) Rank Year Average ----------------- 1. 1931 50.8 2012 50.8 3. 1987 49.7 4. 2006 49.3 5. 1998 48.8
How Long Will Minnesota’s Drought Linger? State Climatologist Greg Spoden adds some personal thoughts to his monthly HydroClim summary: “It is reasonable to assume that the present drought status will remain relatively unchanged for the remainder of the winter. The historical average precipitation over the next two months is less than two inches and the topsoil is sealed by frost. Therefore, Minnesota will be highly dependent on spring rains to ease the situation. Without abundant spring rains, a number of critical drought issues involving public water supply, agriculture, horticulture, tourism, and others will rapidly surface early in the growing season.” (the latest Minnesota Drought Monitor information is here).
Preliminary Data. NOAA NCDC data shows that January – November was the warmest on record for a big chunk of the USA. Every region in bright red experienced the warmest year in 118 years of record-keeping.
Region Chops Sandy Debris Down To Size. Here’s an eye-opening clip from an article at The Wall Street Journal: “The immense task of leveling the mountains of debris left behind by Sandy is coming into focus two months after the historic superstorm ravaged the East Coast. In the end, the federal government estimates that 16 million cubic yards of debris piled up around New York and New Jersey—enough to fill the Empire State Building 16 times over—though more than half has yet to arrive at landfills…”
Photo credit above: “A aerial view of the damage in Mantoloking, N.J., caused by Hurricane Sandy, Oct. 31, 2012. President Barack Obama toured New Jersey’s ravaged coastline with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in a display of big-government muscle and bipartisan harmony.” (Doug Mills/The New York Times)
Facebook And The Rest Of Silicon Valley Could Be Wiped Out In 40 Years. Hype, or a real concern with rising sea levels? Here’s an excerpt from a story at Business Insider: “While much of California’s coastline is at risk of rising sea levels, things look particularly bad for the Bay Area. Silicon Valley is already 3-10 feet below sea level, and scientists say that seawater will rise 16 inches by 2050. By 2100, that number is supposed to jump to 65 inches, and the entire area will experience more frequent, hard-hitting storms. If the levees in place are destroyed or overwhelmed by a storm surge, one hard blow could put the 3 million people who live in Silicon Valley in a grisly Waterworld. “It’s imminent,” Mruz says. “There’s no question in my mind; we’re going to have to do something, at every spot around the Bay.” Also at risk: Google, Yahoo, LinkedIn, Intel, Cisco, and Oracle. “Silicon Valley basically backs right up to the bay,” Mruz told CW. “You have all of them, Yahoo, Google, all right there. Without some type of flood protection potentially in front of that, you could flood that whole area. You’re talking billions of dollars…”
Scientists Link Global Warming To England’s Rainiest Year On Record. This article at euractiv.com caught my eye; here’s an excerpt: “Senior climate scientists are linking global warming to the UK Met Office’s announcement yesterday (3 January) that 2012 was England’s rainiest year since records began. The weather service’s numbers showed that due to slightly more seasonal figures in Wales and Scotland, the UK as a whole experienced its second wettest summer recorded. But four of the UK’s Top Five wettest years have now occurred since 2000, a statistic in line with the expectations of climatologists who model the effects of a warming world. “It is not just Britain but many other parts of northern Europe and north America that are getting wetter and there is a climate change component to it,” Kevin Trenberth told EurActiv over a phone line from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado…”
Climate Change: What’s Faith Got To Do With It? Here is an excerpt of an article that resonated with me, from California’s Whittier Daily News: “Throughout all of California and the rest of the country, the faith community has been working for many years to preach the gospel of good stewardship of our shared environment. Amid theological differences, we have fostered a shared sense of purpose and urgency that unites us in solidarity with our local and global communities, especially those most vulnerable to climate change. The action that results from this shared sense of purpose goes far beyond a congregation’s four walls. People of faith bring shared principles – such as working for the common good, caring for our neighbors, and working for economic justice – into the public policy arena…”
Global Warming And Drought In The Midwest: Expect More Of The Same? Here’s a snippet of a story at chicagomag.com: “The Midwest drought of 2012 has been one of the most expensive natural disasters of recent decades, with Mississippi River barge traffic on the verge of shutting down, and the Army Corps of Engineers blowing up underwater limestone to keep traffic moving:
Welcome to the WeatherNation blog. Every day I sift through hundreds of stories, maps, graphics and meteorological web sites, trying to capture some of the most interesting weather nuggets, the stories behind the forecast. I’ll link to stories and share some of the web sites I use. I’m still passionate about the weather, have been ever since Tropical Storm Agnes flooded my home in Lancaster, PA in 1972. I’ve started 5 weather-related companies. “EarthWatch” created the world’s first 3-D weather graphics for TV stations – Steven Spielberg used our software in “Jurassic Park” and “Twister”. My last company, “Digital Cyclone”, personalized weather for cell phones. “My-Cast” was launched in 2001 and is still going strong on iPhone, Android and Blackberry. I sold DCI to Garmin in 2007 so I could focus on my latest venture: WeatherNation. I also write a daily weather column for The Star Tribune startribune.