Neat Noctilucent Clouds, Recent Rains, Drought Update and a Fall-like Look to September
Thursday, September 13th, 2012
Thanks to Jodi Daly for the pictures below out of Arizona. They are Noctilucent clouds from a recent rocket test in Arizona! Noctilucent clouds typically form in the upper atmosphere (Mesoshpere) at an altitude of 250,000ft. to 280,000ft. These are typically seen in the summer months well after sunset:
Thanks to Alison Gimpel from Proctor, MN for the picture below of a beautiful sunrise from earlier this week.
“Drought Denting” Rainfall
Sure is nice to see rain in spots that have been so hot and dry this year so far! Radar estimates of rainfall from yesterday show a thin band of moisture from the Western Great Lakes Region to the Desert Southwest. Areas shaded in dark green to yellow suggest nearly 1″ to 1.5″ of rain. Denver, CO picked up nearly 1″ of much needed rain yesterday, but still needs nearly 5″ to 5.5″ to get back to normal precipitation values for the year.
NOAA’s HPC 5 day rainfall forecast suggests the potential of 2″ to 4″ of rain possible for parts of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley as this slow moving from slides east.
The US Drought Monitor released an update today, which doesn’t show much ‘appreciative’ change from last week.
National Drought Summary – September 11th, 2012
This U.S. Drought Monitor week saw some minor improvements in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Northeast associated with the passage of a strong cold front during the weekend. In the Southwest, southerly flows continued to deliver monsoonal rains helping to ease drought conditions over portions of Arizona and the Great Basin. Some worsening of drought conditions continued in the Plains and Texas associated with hot, dry conditions in the region. The Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic continued to benefit from recent rainfall leading to improvements in New York, Vermont, Maine, Delaware, and Maryland. The National Climatic Data Center’s “State of the Climate” report for August 2012 indicated that the contiguous U.S. experienced the third hottest summer on record.
Midwest: With the passage of a strong cold front during the weekend, significant rains led to widespread one-category improvements across southeastern Missouri, Kentucky, western Tennessee, eastern Illinois, central Indiana, and southwestern Ohio. Local rains in western Kentucky ranged from 1.5 to 3.5 inches. Upward of five inches of rain fell locally this week in southeastern Missouri and western Indiana. A one-category improvement was depicted in northern Ohio, as consistent rainfall during the last two weeks provided some short-term improvement. In the northern tier, above average temperatures combined with below average precipitation during the last 30 to 45 days led to the expansion of Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormal Dryness (D0) in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Severe drought grew to include Beltrami, Clearwater, and Mahnomen Counties in northwestern Minnesota as well.
The Central and Northern Plains: The region continued to experience below normal precipitation and slightly above normal temperatures with the exception of parts of central and eastern Kansas. In the Dakotas, there was widespread expansion of Severe Drought (D2) in western North Dakota. Within the last month, the percent of normal precipitation was below 50 percent throughout most of the Northern Plains. Growing precipitation deficits in central North Dakota led to a widespread one-category degradation. A small expansion in Extreme Drought (D3) was depicted in central South Dakota as agricultural field conditions worsened.
Looking Ahead: In the short-term, the HPC 5-Day forecast is predicting rainfall totals in excess of two inches throughout large portions of Texas and Oklahoma and amounts more than three inches along the Gulf Coast regions of Texas and Louisiana. Portions of drought stricken Colorado, Kansas, and Iowa are expected to receive some modest relief.
The CPC 6-10 Day Outlook is projecting above average precipitation in Alaska excluding the southeastern portions. Below normal precipitation is forecasted for most of West, while above average precipitation is forecasted for the upper Great Lakes states, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures around most of the West, except coastal California, will remain above average while most of the Plains and Midwest will see below average conditions. In the Northeast, above average temperatures are predicted for much of the region.
Hints of Autumn
Take a look at the 24 hour temp change map below! That’s quite a difference from yesterday, isn’t it?!? This front is the first in a likely series of front that will sag south of the international border through late next week.
High temps today will drop nearly 20° to 30° in a few spots through the central part of the country from where we were yesterday. The cool front will see moderating temperatures over the coming days, but will bring a cool down to most spots through the eastern half of the country through the end of the week/early weekend.
Frost Potential Tonight
As cold air sinks in behind the front and as skies clear tonight, a few locations across the far north could see some patchy frost. The National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin through AM Friday.
Low Temps Tonight
Several spots in central and northern Minnesota could dip into the 30s tonight! Grab the extra layer tonight/tomorrow morning… you’ll need it!
September Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook brings a good chance of below average temperatures through the end of the month.
GFS Model Brings the Brrr!
The images below show the GFS model’s solution to temperatures a few thousand feet off the ground next week. The first image shows a cool front dropping out of Canada through early week with temperatures even cooler than what we’re seeing now. If the solution is correct, we’ll likely see more widespread frost across a larger chunk of the Upper Mississippi Valley early next week.
Late Next Week…
Hard to put a lot of stock into GFS at 24o hours out (not very reliable), but it’s fun to look at every once in a while. The GFS model’s solution for late next week/early weekend shows yet another cool front dropping south of the border with another Canadian blast… Stay tuned for more!
Nadine, Nadine, Nadine, Nadine
Thanks to Dolly Parton for the inspiration for the title above from her song “Jolene” that goes:
“Jolene, jolene, jolene, jolene
Im begging of you please don’t take my man
Jolene, jolene, jolene, jolene
Please don’t take him just because you can”
Nadine… A Fish Storm
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 52.2 WEST. NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H…AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. NADINE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO… AND NADINE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB…29.23 INCHES.
Happy Thursday everyone, hope all is well! I saw this today and thought it was share worthy, LOL… Enjoy!
Thanks for checking in on this Thursday, have a great rest of the week!
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV