The Climate Prediction Center issued an updated 90 day forecast covering May to June. As seen in previous months, the forecast is calling for above average temperatures across much of the nation. The highest percentage of warmer than normal conditions extends from the Northeast to the Deep South and near the Four Corners area. There are not any areas of below average temperatures in the outlook.
Drier than average conditions are expected in the Great Lakes region. Above average rainfall is in the forecast for the High Plains and Front Range, and along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.
— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) April 20, 2017
The CPC notes that neutral water temperatures are still being found in the Pacific Ocean. Therefore, no influences are expected in May from an El Nino or La Nina. Forecast model predictions were used heavily by the CPC for the outlook, along with current overall meteorological trends. Soil moisture and snow pack were also considered. Moisture levels are high in soils over portions of the Midwest, which typically has a lagged relationship with below normal temperatures. Above normal snow pack in the Central and Northern Rockies will have a cooling effect on averages.
Long range models are favoring an El Nino later this Summer, which leads to the broad area of warmer than normal temperatures in the forecast.
For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels