All Weather News

Tropical Disturbance in the Atlantic Getting Better Organized

31 Jul 2014, 3:18 pm

invest93_satellite

Invest 93-L, a tropical disturbance that’s been bumping around the Atlantic Ocean for the past few days, is starting to become better organized. According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla. the system is currently located about 500 miles east of the southern Windward Islands, moving west-northwest at 15 to 20-mph.

The NHC gives the storm a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours, which is why a Hurricane Hunter aircraft was dispatched to investigate the storm Thursday afternoon.

The Hurricane Hunters reported winds of 40 to 45-mph on the northern part of the storm. And the most recent satellite imagery from the area shows a storm with a well-defined center of circulation and much more robust thunderstorm activity — all signs of continued organization.

The recent spate of convective activity has lead the Hurricane Center to suggest that if the uptick in thunderstorm activity persists, the system could be upgraded to a depression later Thursday or early Friday. If that happens, expect advisories in parts of the Lesser Antilles to soon follow suit.

Some locations that could be affected by this system are as follows: The Windward Islands and parts of the central Lesser Antilles. Over the next few days, the models are surprisingly inline with each other, giving us a pretty good idea of where the system might be headed.

invest93_forecast_tracks

At this point the models are suggesting that the storm will swing across the north arc of the Lesser Antilles, then skirting Puerto Rico before crossing the Bahamas. As far as intensity, most models are keeping the storm fairly weak. All that said, it’s important to note that models do often change and that’s something meteorologists at WeatherNation will be monitoring in the coming days.

Meteorologist Alan Raymond

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