All Weather News

Next Big Storm a Week From Today?

16 Mar 2009, 9:24 am
Forecast Ptype 7.5 Day
Forecast Ptype 7.5 Day
Forecast Max Temps 7.5 Day
Forecast Max Temps 7.5 Day
Forecast Ptype 3.5 Day
Forecast Ptype 3.5 Day
It’s at generally quiet times like these that we pay attention to what is coming up on our Medium and Long Range Forecast Precipitation Type Animations.

The big item to begin today’s article is what our Animation above shows starting to form next Sunday and Monday. Now we’ve discussed before how when looking this far out it really is difficult to maintain any degree of certainty, however the last few storms that have appeared on our medium range product, did actually evolve.

To see what we are referring to open the animation, choose ‘stop’ and ‘forward one’ until you reach F156hr valid 2pm EDT on Sunday, March 22. Notice the 996 low sitting in basically southeast Wyoming.

Advance one frame to F162hr, and notice she digs to 990mb with excellent baroclinicity. Forward a few more to F174 valid Monday 8am EDT March 23 and she sits at the border of Minnesota and the Dakotas, and at our last frame F180hr valid 2pm EDT Monday, March 23 she is forecast to exit into Canada through northern Minnesota.

One thing is certain with this type of setup at this time of year, the warm air advection associated with this development will likely trigger strong thunderstorms along the southern flank of the system over the weekend and through the beginning of next week as she develops, we will examine temperature maximums in a bit, and reinvestigate the development later this week.

So what is going on in our immediate future? Well, the snows we discussed last week for the PNW are continuing, our shorter range Precipitation Type Animation shows the rains and snows continuing through at least midweek as the initial push of moisture associated with the deep layered trough will funnel in, until another burst of energy enters the region later in the week.

The rains we discussed for the southeast will continue to swing through and brush the mid-atlantic states (note Animation) before exiting the region around noon on Tuesday.

For Tuesday the majority of the nation from the southwest through the northeast will be precipitation free, until another batch of rain will begin entering from the Midwest through the northeast on Wednesday (note: F054 valid 3am EDT), where at least in this instance precipitation should remain in liquid form until 8am EDT Thursday, where the extreme northeastern states will have a chance of snow on Thursday, where our animation ends.

Picking up our Medium Range Forecast Precipitation Type Animation again from there, we see the opportunity for snow continues through Thursday F078 Valid 8am EDT and and Friday, while snows in the PNW continue through our previous discussion above for the potential of the developing storm.

The good news for the majority of the nation is the warmer temperatures we discussed last week are finally starting to stream in. Our 7.5 day Forecast Maximum Temperature Animation shows warmth beginning to take a foothold on the central U.S. for most of the week until Thursday where cooler temperatures offend the northeast and Great Lakes States a bit, then on next Sunday and Monday we see the strong warm air advection for the central and southern plains associated with our developing system. We shall see how she holds up in later model runs.

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

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