Northern Wintry Mess, Southern Storm Threat, Frustrated Folks Throughout
Similar to last week, we have a set up taking place across the nation that will allow for cold air to descend along the Rocky Mountains and into the Southern Plains while warm and moist air rides up from the Gulf of Mexico, and moves towards the Northeast. It is the area in between these two air masses that we’ll see the chance for strong to severe storms to fire up for several days this week. Heavy, wet snow has already started falling earlier this Sunday across North Dakota and places like Bismarck could have to deal with 1-2 feet of snow while down in the Mid-Mississippi River Valley could take on 2-5″ of rain later on in the week.
Here is the general set-up for the week where the cool & dry air is going to clash with the warm & moist air across the plain states; from Texas to Iowa, with several cities potentially seeing back-to-back days of severe weather.
The image above shows where the risk for severe weather will be for the next several days. Each highlighted area corresponds to a SLIGHT risk zone issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. The primary risk are going to be from quarter to golf ball-sized hail, gusts of winds over 50 MPH and heavy rains. The is also a small chance for isolated tornadoes to develop. Cities such as Joplin, MO, and Tulsa, OK could see severe activity from Sunday, straight through Wednesday as those storms fire up over the same areas, over and over again.
Several areas of low pressure will fire up from the Southern Plains and move up along the slow-moving jet stream, towards the Great Lakes. Each one will tape into gulf moisture and drop it along its path. Several inches of rain, about 2-5″ on average, could come down, and this is rain that is not really needed. That region is out of any drought worries so the rain will only lead to swollen rivers and flooding situations for towns along the banks of those rivers. Numerous counties are already seeing some form of flooding from either small rivers to more moderate in size.
On top of the rain that this weather pattern will bring, it will allow snow to come on down from the Northern Plains towards the Colorado Rockies. 1-2 feet is not out of the question for those highlighted areas above. Places like Bismarck, ND, Cheyenne, WY and Steamboat Springs, CO could be having to keep the snow shovels handy, the snow blowers gassed up and the plows on the trucks as they will becoming handy most of the week.
Colder than normal air is on the move once again with this dip in the jet stream forming in the west and sliding, over the week, towards the east coast. Temps are looking to run some 10-20° or more for cities such as Minneapolis, Denver, Billings, and St. Louis. On the positive side of things, temps will also be on the rise where the jet stream buckles up and makes a ridge out in the east. So places like Louisville, Pittsburgh, New York and Washington DC, will see a big-time warm up this week, with temps trending at least 5-15° warmer than normal.
So that is where Spring is hiding, out east away the Northern Plains and the Midwest.
Bismarck, ND has the week starting off with on the cold side, with highs about 20° below normal. And that is just insult to add to injury as the folks there will have to dig themselves out of at least a foot of snow. By the end of the upcoming weekend, temps will be warm enough to melt the snow, with highs approaching seasonal levels. The bad news in that situation is that there will be ALOT of melting going on, which could be a big time flood issue.
For the city of Cincinnati, temps are riding nice and high through much of the week. On average, temps will be warmer than normal by 10-15°. There will also be several chances for storms along the way through the week, and by the time the weekend comes around, temps will free-fall beyond normal levels with a large, sweeping cold front coming through the area.
Here we are, getting ready for the week ahead and it all starts with a small leap out of bed tomorrow morning, and we have the forecast ready for you. Wet weather will continue to linger in the northwest, while the southwest is mainly quiet, on the breezy side with temps 60s and 70s. Down in the Southern Plains, temps are in the 70s to 90s with that chance for storms to fire up in Texas to Kansas. The Northern Plains will get the chance to dig out from the snow with the skies clearing up, but a chilly wind will still be around, making it a little harder than it seems. Nice and warm weather is coming to the Northeast while the Southeast see warm and humid conditions with a few chances for storms.
Meteorologist Addison Green (Twitter: @agreenWNTV)