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Odds Increasing of Hermine Forming in Atlantic; Puerto Rico Under Flash Flood Watch

The Atlantic basin may soon have its next named storm, and it could pose a threat to the Southeast as soon as this weekend.

A tropical low spinning just northeast of the Leeward Islands in the eastern Caribbean Sea is starting to show increased signs of development, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida upped the chances of the low turning into a named storm to 70 percent on Tuesday evening.

The low is projected by computer guidance to move through the island of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, where a Flash Flood Watch was in place, then turning slightly north towards the Bahamas and perhaps eventually moving towards south Florida. As it moves up the Bahamas, the storm may gain strength due to warmer sea-surface temperatures that help fuel tropical systems, although other factors, notably wind shear and dry air aloft, may also hinder its development.
spaghetti plots

Changes to the forecast are expected, so be sure to check back in with WeatherNation for the latest.

The so-called Hurricane Hunters, an arm of the U.S. Air Force tasked with flying into and investigating potential tropical systems, flew into the storm today and found an elongated area of low pressure, but were unable to defined a well-defined center of low pressure normally associated with a tropical cyclone. The Hunters are scheduled to fly back into the storm on Wednesday.

It’s also worth noting that while some computer models are showing ominous solutions, the forecast is constantly changing and no individual computer solution or map should be trusted until the storm gets closer to its possible destination. For those reading from the Southeast, this low isn’t expected to impact Florida until Sunday or Monday.

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Again, stay with WeatherNation for the latest on the tropics and the potential for Hermine to form in the Atlantic.

For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Chris Bianchi

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