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Once-Powerful Super Typhoon Nuri, Now a Screaming Extra-Tropical Low; Lower 48 to Get the “Arctic Treatment”

min central pressure

The remnants of Super Typhoon Nuri are making a beeline for the Bering Sea, where the storm is likely to interact with the polar jet — creating a juggernaut of a mid-latitude cyclone.

A host of weather forecast models are indicating the powerful low is likely to develop as the storm passes Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula. And the latest surface analysis has the storm at 944 millibars; down from 995 millibars just 18 hours prior. Additional deepening of the low is expected in the coming hours.

And the GFS model is hinting the storm is likely to undergo additional “bombogenesis,” that’s where a system’s central pressure drops more than 24 millibars, in 24 hours. This system could go as low as 924 millibars. Just for a bit of perspective, the strongest hurricane during the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season — Hurricane Gonzalo — only had a minimum central pressure of 940 millibars.

Fierce winds and pounding waves are pummeling parts of Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. The National Weather Service in Anchorage is calling for winds gusting up to 90-mph through Saturday morning and they’re urging residents to tie down or remove any “loose debris,” to avoid property damage.

On Friday, the NWS in Anchorage tweeted a 96-mph wind gust was recorded on Shemya — a small island, that’s home to a U.S. Military Air Base, in the western Aleutian Islands.

Seas of 30 to 40 feet are also being forecast for much of the Bering Sea region, but waves upward of 50 feet aren’t totally out of the question.

winds

If the storm reaches the 920 to 925 millibar range, it could be on the strongest extra-tropical storms ever recorded. According to the National Weather Service in Anchorage, the last time a storm this strong impacted Alaska was in Oct. 1977. That system had a minimum central pressure of 925 millibars as it passed over Dutch Harbor, Alaska.

This system also has the potential to surpass the all-time strongest mid-latitude storm ever recorded. That storm, which bombed out over the North Atlantic in 1993, had a minimum central pressure of 913 millibars.

Nuri is no stranger to bomb cyclogenesis. Late last week, the storm went from sustained winds of 85-mph to a 180-mph monster, in just 24 hours. At the height of its strength, Nuri nearly matched the intensity of Super Typhoon Vongfong — widely regarded as the strongest tropical cyclone of 2014.

nov 12 lows

After pummeling Alaska over the weekend, the remnants of Nuri will move inland — eventually plummeting southward into the Lower 48. And it’s likely to bring a shot of Arctic air along for the ride. Overnight lows could fall into the negative double-digits across parts of the Intermountain West and parts of the Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning.

Places like Denver, Chicago and Milwaukee could see lows dip into the low to mid-teens by Thursday morning.

The cold air could reach as far south as the Florida Panhandle, but interaction with a preceding warmer airmass will moderate the cold air significantly, as it moves further south.

Meteorologist Alan Raymond

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