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Quiet Weather Pattern Now, Active Again Thursday?

Finally, a nice breather after our crazy weather this past week! Skies have cleared out in places like the southeast, where clean-up continues after major flooding and tornado damage over the past several days. The jet stream has become more “zonal” or flat and straight across the middle of the country, which brought an end to the parade of storms.

jet monday morning

 

However, this lull will be short-lived. Already, another trough is edging onshore in the Pacific Northwest, and as it deepens over the mountain west, expect thunderstorms to follow.

jet wednesday night

 

Winds along the southern end of this trough will likely amp up the fire danger in the southwest for the next few days, as dewpoints are still running pretty low in parts of Arizona and near Las Vegas, NV.

day1otlk_fire

 

With support aloft from the jet stream and a redeveloping flow off the Gulf of Mexico, strong thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening just west of the Mississippi River Valley. Many of the severe weather components meteorologists look for are in place later this week, so we’ll be watching carefully and updating the forecast as necessary until the storms arrive. See the highlighted zone below:

thursday severe threat

Once again, instability (shown here as CAPE, for all you weather weenies) will be on the increase through the middle of the nation. The energy available for storm formation can be found as far north as Minnesota and Wisconsin as we get into Thursday, so strong storms should have an easier time popping up in these regions.

cape forecast

 

 

This is just an early sample of what the GFS model shows for Thursday night. The position of the surface low will play a big role in placement of the storms and their relative strength, so this is still subject to change. However, the consensus so far is that an area of low pressure will develop east of the Rockies and could produce some stronger thunderstorms.

gfs thursday night

 

This massive trough will be powerful enough to break through the sweltering heat in the Central Plains that’s in place today and tomorrow, leaving much cooler weather in its wake. This forecast shows the departure from average temperatures 6-10 days from now. Note the cold patch directly behind the upper-level trough.

6-10 day temps

 

We’ll keep an eye on things for you here on WeatherNation. Until then, we have details on the first 100° readings of the season and more through the day. Tune in! -Meteorologist Miranda Hilgers (@mhilgersWNTV)

Miranda Studio web

 

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