Rare November Tornado Outbreak by the Numbers…
The images from the Midwest and Ohio Valley are astounding! Sunday’s rare November tornado outbreak will go down in history as Illinois deadliest tornado outbreak in the month of November as several strong tornadoes developed. Some of the harder hit areas included:
New Minden, IL
Severe Forecast vs. Storm Reports
This is a pretty powerful graphic, which shows severe forecast on Sunday along with the severe weather reports for the day.
KUDOS to the Storm Prediction Center
Take a look at this series of images from the Storm Prediction Center. It’s their forecast over the last several days leading up to Sunday’s severe weather outbreak. Note that by day 4, there was already an highlighted severe risk area and by day 3, the severe threat area was nearly nailed.
Rare November High Risk Days
High Risk days in the month of November aren’t very common. In fact, since 1984, there have only been 5 days. Below are the most recent November high risk days. In 2002, there were nearly 70 tornado reports and in 2005, there were nearly 50 reports.
Average November Tornadoes
According to NOAA’s NCDC, the U.S. averages 58 tornadoes (1991-2010 data) in November. With Sunday’s tornadoes, we are sitting at nearly 70+ nationwide so far this month, which is above average! Note the area that saw the most activity on Sunday. Those states typically only see 1 to 2 tornadoes each November.
Below Average Tornadoes For 2013
Based on preliminary data from the Storm Prediction Center, 2013 has only had ~886 tornado reports and is running below the (2005-2012) short-term average of 1,478 thru November 17th. Interestingly, according to the Capital Weather Gang, 2013 has seen 9 EF4 or higher tornadoes, which is above the 30-year normal of 7.7!
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