Our severe weather risk stretches across the entire United States north to south Monday, but the southern extent of the line will feature more of a hail threat through Monday evening and Tuesday morning.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted an area in south Texas for severe weather. Storms will be isolated in nature, but those that develop could produce gusty winds and large hail (1″+ or greater).
Storms will continue through the overnight. We will see most storms be sub-severe, with smaller hail and gusty, but not severe criteria winds (58 mph or greater). A bigger threat will be the risk of flash flooding as rainfall rates will be on the order of 1-2″ per hour. More on that threat below.
Through the evening hours, storms will stay active along the cold front. We anticipate a few severe storms for east Texas and western Louisiana through the first part of the overnight.
Meanwhile, storms will focus south early Tuesday morning, around Corpus Christi, Victoria and Brownsville. We will likely see a few severe storms as we wake up and flooding potential as there is an abundance of moisture in the atmosphere.
Although there is no official SPC outlook for Tuesday, our forecast model is indicating the potential for a few stronger thunderstorms in south Texas on Tuesday.
Storms should fade from south Texas and into the Gulf by mid-afternoon Tuesday.
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has highlighted Texas’s Gulf Coast and inland locations with the risk of flooding today. The WPC highlights the risk of excessive rainfall rates (1-2″/hour) as the main potential for flash flooding in these regions.
Our in-house model is pointing toward some extremely heavy rain in the highlighted areas through Tuesday evening. Some totals of 5″+ are possible where heavy rain and thunderstorms train over the same spots especially in Corpus Christi and south Texas.
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