Severe Storms Likely From Boise to Atlanta As Summer Heat Returns
“As Climate Central reported on May 23, the 2012 fire season is likely to continue the trend of severe wildfire seasons in the Southwest, due largely to the prevalence of long-term drought conditions in the region. Long-burning, massive wildfires have become more common in the U.S. recent years.” – details on the record blaze burning in southwestern New Mexico from Climate Central below. Photo courtesy of NOAA.
Partly-Severe. SPC is predicting a few severe T-storms for Idaho and Montana, on the leading edge of unusually hot, steamy air. Another band of rough weather may break out from the suburbs of St. Louis to Memphis, Atlanta and Savannah.
Day 3-7 Weather Threats. Here are NOAA’s major concerns this week, ranging from significant heat from Denver northward into Wyoming, highs winds for Salt Lake City and northern Arizona, heavy rains for Idaho and Montana, and lingering drought for many southern states.
Rainfall Potential. A very soggy week is brewing for the Pacific Northwest and much of the south, some 2-4″ rains from Boise to Dallas to the Florida Panhandle and Charleston. Map: NOAA.
Wild Storms. Thanks to @rcoryjohnson, who snapped this shot in Fultondale, Alabama on Sunday.
Roll Cloud. Severe thunderstorms rumbled through St. Augustine, Florida yesterday. Photo courtesy of Karen Nelson.
Flooded Yards. Robert Denton snapped this photo in his backyard in Portland, Maine. Some 2-3″ rainfall amounts soaked New England over the weekend from an unusually slow-moving storm.
180 Hour Forecast. Unusually cool, stormy weather grips the Pacific Northwest, while heat builds across the Rockies and Plains by late week. Strong/severe storms break out across the Deep South. No tropical storm development is expected this week. GFS outlook courtesy of NOAA.
Record-Setting Blaze In Isolated Area Of Southwestern New Mexico Grows To Nearly 340 Square Miles. It’s already New Mexico’s largest blaze on record, and it continues to grow in size and intensity. Here’s an update from AP and The Washington Post: “RESERVE, N.M. — A wildfire burning in what New Mexico’s governor called “impossible” terrain in an isolated, mountainous area of the state continued its rapid growth Friday as forecasters called for thunderstorms and dry lightning that could spark even more fires. The massive blaze in the Gila National Forest in southwestern New Mexico is the biggest in state history and the largest currently burning in the country. It scorched an additional 39 square miles in the past day, growing to nearly 340 square miles, as more than 1,200 firefighters worked to halt its spread.”
Photo credit above: “In this Saturday, June 2, 2012 photo provided by the U.S. Forest Service, a large cloud of smoke rises from a fire in the Gila National Forest in New Mexico. The Whitewater-Baldy Complex fire has scorched more than 377 square miles. (AP Photo/U.S. Forest Service, Kari Greer).”
New Mexico Wildfires Now A Record-Setting “Megafire”. Here’s some perspective from meteorologist Andrew Freedman at Climate Central: “…The megafire is the result of a merger of two separate, relatively modest-sized fires. When the two merged in late May, the fire dramatically expanded, burning 70,000 acres in just one day. As of Friday, the fire had burned 216,000 acres, and was only 10 percent contained. More than 1,200 personnel were battling the fire. There have been no fatalities or major injuries. The fire has surpassed New Mexico’s record fire, which occurred just last year. The Las Conchas fire burned more than 156,000 acres and came perilously close to Los Alamos National Laboratory, the birthplace of the atomic bomb.”
Photo credit above: “Firefighters work burnout operations at the Gila National Forest.” Credit: U.S. Forest Service.
Be Ready To Go; Hurricane Season Is Here Again. Without an El Nino pattern to increase winds over the tropics (which tends to weaken developing storms over the Atlantic and Caribbean), and with water temperatures running 1-3 F. warmer than average, I suspect an above-average year for hurricanes is brewing. Here’s an excerpt of a good article from Longboat Key News: “…Being involved in evacuations with Sarasota County there were residents on Siesta Key that refused to leave their home when we strongly encouraged them to do so only later to find them calling the 9-1-1 Center asking for the fire department to get them out of their home. The safety of emergency workers is also at the top of the list and we do not go out of our shelter when winds are sustained at 46 MPH. Evacuate early!
Our population must take evacuation seriously.
If you haven’t thought about hurricane preparedness than here is what is suggested:
1. Make a plan as to where you will go. Go to www.floridadisater.org
2. Contact Manatee or Sarasota County Emergency Management or Longboat Key Fire Rescue for a Hurricane Guide.
3. Develop a Disaster Supply Kit
4. Protect your home before the storm
5. Purchase a battery operated weather radio”
* Image above courtesy of NASA.
NASA To Fly Drone Aircraft Above 2012 Hurricanes. NOAA NHC forecasters do a remarkably good job predicting hurricane tracks. But forecasting hurricane intensity (“will Hurricane Bubba be a Category1 or a Category 3 storm when it reaches land?”) is much tougher to pin down – models do a consistently poor job predicting intensity. It turns out technology originally developed for the military has potentially life-saving applications.Brevardtimes.com has the fascinating details; here’s an excerpt: “Beginning this summer and over the next several years, NASA will be sending unmanned aircraft dubbed “severe storm sentinels” above stormy skies to help researchers and forecasters uncover information about hurricane formation and intensity changes. Several NASA centers are joining federal and university partners in the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) airborne mission targeted to investigate the processes that underlie hurricane formation and intensity changes in the Atlantic Ocean basin.”
Hurricane Prep 2012: Answers From The Storm Experts. Here’s an excerpt of an interesting post from al.com:
Has there ever been an attempt or experiment to reduce the strength of a hurricane?
“The U.S. government once supported research into methods of hurricane modification, known as Project Stormfury. For a couple decades the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its predecessor tried to weaken hurricanes by dropping silver iodide — a substance that serves as a effective ice nuclei — into the rain bands of the storms. During the Stormfury years, scientists seeded clouds in Hurricanes Esther (1961), Beulah (1963), Debbie (1969), and Ginger (1971). The experiments took place over the open Atlantic far from land. The seeding targeted convective clouds just outside the hurricane eyewall in an attempt to form a new ring of clouds that, it was hoped, would compete with the natural circulation of the storm and weaken it.”
* Hurricane Irene image courtesy of NASA.
Are We In The Midst Of A Sixth Mass Extinction? “Honey, please pass me the sports page. Paul’s on a rant about extinction now – Monday’s are tough enough.” I realize this is tough to read, but this book review in The New York Times caught my eye on Sunday; here’s an excerpt: “NEARLY 20,000 species of animals and plants around the globe are considered high risks for extinction in the wild. That’s according to the most authoritative compilation of living things at risk — the so-called Red List maintained by the International Union for Conservation of Nature.
This should keep us awake at night.
Global Warming Turns Tundra To Forest – Study. Reuters has the details: “Plants and shrubs have colonised parts of the Arctic tundra in recent decades growing into small trees, a scientific study found, adding the change may lead to an increase in global warming pressures if replicated on a wider scale. Scientists from Finland and Oxford University investigated an area of 100,000 square km, roughly the size of Iceland, in the northwestern Eurasian tundra, stretching from western Siberia to Finland. Using data from satellite imaging, fieldwork and observations from local reindeer herders, they found that in 8-15 percent of the area willow and alder plants have grown to over 2 metres in the last 30-40 years.”
Politics Of Red, White And Green. Here’s an excerpt of an Op-Ed from The Boston Herald: “It was interesting while it lasted. But it looks like the “green revolution” has entered the long slide into “What was all that about?” In January, the Spanish government removed absurdly lavish subsidies for its renewable energy industry, and the renewable energy industry all but imploded. You could say it was never a renewable energy industry at all. It was a government subsidy industry where in exchange for creating conscience-soothing but other-wise inefficient windmills and solar panels, the government gave the makers piles of cash consumers never would.”
- Paul Douglas
- Welcome to the WeatherNation blog. Every day I sift through hundreds of stories, maps, graphics and meteorological web sites, trying to capture some of the most interesting weather nuggets, the stories behind the forecast. I’ll link to stories and share some of the web sites I use. I’m still passionate about the weather, have been ever since Tropical Storm Agnes flooded my home in Lancaster, PA in 1972. I’ve started 5 weather-related companies. “EarthWatch” created the world’s first 3-D weather graphics for TV stations – Steven Spielberg used our software in “Jurassic Park” and “Twister”. My last company, “Digital Cyclone”, personalized weather for cell phones. “My-Cast” was launched in 2001 and is still going strong on iPhone, Android and Blackberry. I sold DCI to Garmin in 2007 so I could focus on my latest venture: WeatherNation. I also write a daily weather column for The Star Tribune startribune.
com/weatherAnd if you’re on Twitter, you’ll find me @pdouglasweather