A cold front dropping southward from Canada will move across the Upper Midwest today and bring a round of severe thunderstorms. An enhanced risk for severe weather has been posted in West Central Minnesota and Eastern South Dakota. Southerly surface winds will transport heat and humidity into the region. Upper level winds from the west will bring in Jet Stream energy aloft.
The shifting wind direction as you move up with height in the atmosphere (south at the surface, west in the upper levels) will produce directional wind shear, which supports tornado development. The most likely area will be ahead of the cold front and near a weak warm front. Large hail is the biggest concern today.
As a wave of showers and thunderstorms moves out of the region this morning, sunshine will return to the area. This will help to destabilize the atmosphere, bringing instability to support severe thunderstorms. Development is most likely in the evening hours.
As the cold front sinks to the south and east, the risk for severe storms will move into the western corn belt Wednesday and the Middle Atlantic for Thursday.
For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels