Saturday Severe Weather
Almost two dozen tornado reports occurred on Saturday in Nebraska and Kansas. One of the more photogenic storms was in Rozel, KS. Check out some of the amazing video and photos below!
Severe Weather Threat Ahead
The Storm Prediction Center continues severe weather outlooks for Sunday and Monday across the middle part of the country. Note that the ares highlighted below will likely change, but if you’re in these areas you’ll want to pay attention to local forecasts as strong to severe thunderstorms could be rumbling close to home. Text below via the SPC.
SUNDAY THREAT
...PLAINS/OZARKS/MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY... A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE /AND-OR QUICKLY BE REESTABLISHED FROM SATURDAY PM CONVECTION/ ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 60S AND SOME LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST OF A NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYLINE. AIDED BY A SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE A POTENTIAL FACTOR FOR REDEVELOPMENT/RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SUCH AS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT. SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY/ONGOING ACTIVITY...STRONG HEATING/AGGRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY INCLUDING SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHERN IA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX. HERE...MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 3000 J/KG. AIDED BY STEADY HEIGHT FALLS AND AN INCREASING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD /40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/...SURFACE BASED TSTM/DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE TO INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS AND SOUTHEAST NEB INTO FAR NORTHERN OK...PERHAPS BY EARLY OR MID-AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...NEAR/SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE INDUCED TRIPLE POINT...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED/HIGHER-BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH/WEST-CENTRAL TX. WITH AID OF A DIURNALLY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES /PERHAPS ONE OR TWO STRONG/ ESPECIALLY WHERE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. BY EARLY/MID-EVENING...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT AND AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS AND MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...NEAR THE DRYLINE...A MORE DISCRETE MODE OF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS /AGAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER-BASED ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT/ CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT AND SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AS WELL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MONDAY THREAT
...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS... WHILE DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD/INTERVENING CONVECTION...ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST MONDAY/DAY 2 ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WEAKENING/DIMINISHING CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...BUT AS STORMS/CLOUDINESS WANE THROUGH THE MORNING IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT THE ONSET OF HEATING TO DRIVE STRONG AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE PRE-FRONTAL/PRE-DRYLINE WARM SECTOR SHOULD FEATURE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- AIDED BY THE APPROACHING JET STREAK AND FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES -- INCREASES...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT/RAPID GROWTH OF INITIAL CONVECTION DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AS SHEAR INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH INTENSIFYING FLOW ALOFT...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY ACQUIRE ROTATION -- PARTICULARLY WHERE CAPE/SHEAR JUXTAPOSITION APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. HERE...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING...AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS IN SOME AREAS. EVEN SO...ROTATING/SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD LINGER LOCALLY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS -- WITH CONTINUED TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THREAT SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY COOLS/STABILIZES -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA.
Large Trough Keeps Weather Unsettled
Take a look at the 500mb vorticity map below. This shows ‘spin’ in the atmosphere. Note the large dip of low pressure over the Central and High Plains. This is wobbling very slowly off to the east and that’s why we have such an extended period of shower and thunderstorm activity across the middle part of the country.
Lake Mille Lacs Officially “Ice Out”
Official “Ice out” dates have been kept for Lake Mille Lacs since 1950. This year, the ice went out on Thursday May 16 and was considered the latest ice out date ever recorded. In contrast, the ice went out on Lake Mille Lacs on March 26th last year and was the earliest ice out date ever recorded… Crazy huh?!? Talk about weather whiplash!
Curious about your favorite lake? See the MN DNR Ice Out Map HERE:
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