All Weather News

Severe Storms To Continue Today, Monday

19 May 2013, 7:23 am

Saturday Severe Weather

Almost two dozen tornado reports occurred on Saturday in Nebraska and Kansas. One of the more photogenic storms was in Rozel, KS. Check out some of the amazing video and photos below!

Severe Weather Threat Ahead
The Storm Prediction Center continues severe weather outlooks for Sunday and Monday across the middle part of the country. Note that the ares highlighted below will likely change, but if you’re in these areas you’ll want to pay attention to local forecasts as strong to severe thunderstorms could be rumbling close to home. Text below via the SPC.

SUNDAY THREAT

   ...PLAINS/OZARKS/MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE /AND-OR
   QUICKLY BE REESTABLISHED FROM SATURDAY PM CONVECTION/ ACROSS MOST OF
   THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. A RELATIVELY
   MOIST AIRMASS WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 60S AND SOME LOWER 70S F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST
   OF A NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYLINE. 

   AIDED BY A SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION...SCATTERED
   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES WILL BE A POTENTIAL FACTOR FOR
   REDEVELOPMENT/RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SUCH
   AS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN A RELATIVELY
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM
   FRONT. 

   SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY/ONGOING ACTIVITY...STRONG HEATING/AGGRESSIVE
   DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF THE
   MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY INCLUDING SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHERN IA
   SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS OK AND
   NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX. HERE...MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO
   EXCEED 3000 J/KG. AIDED BY STEADY HEIGHT FALLS AND AN INCREASING
   DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD /40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/...SURFACE BASED
   TSTM/DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE TO
   INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS AND
   SOUTHEAST NEB INTO FAR NORTHERN OK...PERHAPS BY EARLY OR
   MID-AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...NEAR/SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
   LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE INDUCED TRIPLE POINT...SOMEWHAT MORE
   ISOLATED/HIGHER-BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY
   LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK SOUTHWARD
   INTO NORTH/WEST-CENTRAL TX.

   WITH AID OF A DIURNALLY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
   JET...FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES /PERHAPS ONE
   OR TWO STRONG/ ESPECIALLY WHERE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE UPPER
   60S/LOWER 70S. BY EARLY/MID-EVENING...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SLOWLY
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO
   UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT AND AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS AND MIDWEST.
   MEANWHILE...NEAR THE DRYLINE...A MORE DISCRETE MODE OF SUSTAINED
   SUPERCELLS /AGAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER-BASED ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWARD
   EXTENT/ CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT A
   LIMITED TORNADO THREAT AND SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AS
   WELL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY THREAT

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
   WHILE DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
   WIDESPREAD/INTERVENING CONVECTION...ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
   WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST MONDAY/DAY 2 ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

   WEAKENING/DIMINISHING CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...BUT AS STORMS/CLOUDINESS WANE THROUGH THE
   MORNING IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT THE ONSET OF HEATING TO DRIVE STRONG
   AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE
   PRE-FRONTAL/PRE-DRYLINE WARM SECTOR SHOULD FEATURE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- AIDED BY THE APPROACHING
   JET STREAK AND FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES --
   INCREASES...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT/RAPID GROWTH OF INITIAL CONVECTION
   DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS SHEAR INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH INTENSIFYING FLOW ALOFT...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY ACQUIRE
   ROTATION -- PARTICULARLY WHERE CAPE/SHEAR JUXTAPOSITION APPEARS MOST
   FAVORABLE ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA.  HERE...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST.  THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   INCREASE INTO THE EVENING...AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS IN
   SOME AREAS.  EVEN SO...ROTATING/SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD LINGER
   LOCALLY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS -- WITH CONTINUED TORNADO AND
   LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.  THREAT SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
   OVERNIGHT...AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY COOLS/STABILIZES -- PARTICULARLY
   ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA.
Simulated Radar for Late Sunday Afternoon/Evening
This is a forecast model of simulated radar for late Sunday afternoon/evening. It appears that things could get quite active for many areas in the middle part of the country. Stay tuned for more!

 

Large Trough Keeps Weather Unsettled

Take a look at the 500mb vorticity map below. This shows ‘spin’ in the atmosphere. Note the large dip of low pressure over the Central and High Plains. This is wobbling very slowly off to the east and that’s why we have such an extended period of shower and thunderstorm activity across the middle part of the country.

Saturday’s Gully Washer Over Upper Midwest
There were several radar estimates of 1″ to 2″+ across parts of central/southern Minnesota from from Friday and Saturday’s thunderstorm activity. Here are few of the heavier rainfall reports from AM Saturday.
More Heavy Rainfall
NOAA’s HPC 5 day rainfall forecast suggests that there could still be an additional 2″ to 4″ of rain across parts of the Upper Midwest by midweek next week. This certainly could bring about some flooding concerns… stay tuned for more!

 

 

Lake Mille Lacs Officially “Ice Out”
Official “Ice out” dates have been kept for Lake Mille Lacs since 1950. This year, the ice went out on Thursday May 16 and was considered the latest ice out date ever recorded. In contrast, the ice went out on Lake Mille Lacs on March 26th last year and was the earliest ice out date ever recorded… Crazy huh?!? Talk about weather whiplash!

Curious about your favorite lake? See the MN DNR Ice Out Map HERE:


Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your weekend!
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

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