Severe Threat Monday, Memories of April Return
Look at the webcam from near Cheyenne on Sunday around midday. This view from I-80 Roundtop East is where the interstate was shutdown from Cheyenne to Rawlins. Note the line of semi-trucks
This was the view from Denver, CO around midday Sunday when the changeover from rain to snow was occurring.
Denver Snow Stats
The National Weather Service out of Denver/Boulder, CO has a list of some of the spring snow stats for the area.
See more weather stats from the NWS Denver/Boulder, CO HERE:
This is what the radar looked like around midday Sunday when some of the heaviest snow was coming down across the Rockies/Front Range. Crazy to think we can still get heavy snow in early/mid May…
Storm Moves East
Severe weather chances will continue through early week as our storm system chugs east. Heavy mountain snow will also end.
Lightning in Columbia, MO
Thanks to David E for sharing this picture out of Columbia, MO from over the weekend.
Severe Threat Continues Monday
Our storm system will continue move east into Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has issued another SLIGHT RISK from near San Antonio, TX to near Detroit, MI. Hail and high winds will be the primary threat, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
…MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES… AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD…SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MID MO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM IA SWD ACROSS MO. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR NEWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/TUE FROM CHICAGO IL SWWD INTO CNTRL MO SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST…MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A POCKET OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY ACROSS LOWER MI BENEATH AN EWD MOVING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. IN RESPONSE…THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ON THE NRN END OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DETROIT AT 21Z/MON SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. IN ADDITION…LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND THERE IS SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 850 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
2014 Tornado Reports
We’ve certainly seen a recent uptick in the amount of tornadoes lately. However, according to NOAA’s SPC, the 2014 PRELIMINARY tornado reports through May 10th were at 317. This is still below the short-term 2005-2013 average through May 10 is 619. Interestingly last year, there were 248; In 2011, there were 1,050 through May 10th!
Tornado Days per Year
According to NOAA’s SPC, the average number of tornado days per year is the highest in the Lower Mississippi Valley with as many as 5 tornado days per year! The central U.S. sees as many as 2 to 3 tornado days per year, while most locations in the western U.S. averages less than 1 tornado per year!
Thanks to Mary Reed Runyon for this picture out of Hatfield, KY who snapped this picture this weekend. Great shot!
Heavy Rainfall Continues
Our current storm system will continue to shift east through the early week time frame. According to NOAA’s HPC, the 5 day precipitation forecast suggests nearly 2″ to 4″ of rainfall through AM Friday. Some of the heaviest looks to fall across parts of central/eastern Texas.
Chilly Week Ahead
Post storm system, temperatures will tumble quite a bit. The image below shows temperatures a few thousand feet off the ground by Wednesday.
Note that a majority of the nation will be cooler than average in the middle part of the country. However, temperatures in the western U.S. and in the Southeastern U.S. will be warmer than average.
Highs From Normal on Wednesday
High temperatures on Wednesday will be nearly 10F to 15F below average in the middle part of the country.
Thanks for checking in and have a great week ahead! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV