Severe Thunderstorms, Flooding Threat and Watching the Tropics
Wednesday, June 5th, 2013
The national tornado count has increased dramatically over the past 2 to 3 weeks thanks to slow moving storm systems. The latest storm system spinning over the Midwest helped to kick out a few lonely tornadoes over North Dakota this week. Thanks to the National Weather Service out of Grand Forks, ND via the Colfax Fire Department for the picture below.
Tallying Up Tornado Reports
The Storm Prediction Center has 6 total tornado reports from Tuesday, June 4th adding to the near 500 PRELIMINARY tornado reports so far in 2013. Interestingly, the average number of U.S. tornadoes to date is generally closer to 900 rather than 500!
Severe Threat Continues
Even though the severe weather threat isn’t quite as impressive as it has been, there is still a risk for large hail, high winds and isolated tornadoes in a few spots across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley
It appears that a small area of circulation across west Texas may help to produce a little rotation in some thunderstorms that may develop later today. It doesn’t appear to be a great tornado risk today, but notice the 2% tornado risk across the west coast of Florida! A developing tropical disturbance may just trigger a tornado threat in Florida over the next couple of days.
Severe Threat Thursday
Now this is what we like to see, minimal severe thunderstorm risk across the country. After the past 3 weeks, quiet weather is much welcomed across the Central and Southern Plains.
Heavy Rain Potential
NOAA’s HPC 5 day rainfall forecast suggests heavy rainfall potential across the eastern part of the country later this week/weekend, especially from Florida through the Carolinas and into the Northeast.
RPM Precipitation Forecast
The high resolution RPM forecast shows nearly 3″ to 5″+ rainfall in spots across parts of Florida and the Southeast through
Tracking the Tropics
June 1st is the official start to the Atlantic Hurricane Season and we’re already keeping a close eye a certain system southwest of Key West, FL. The National Hurricane Center has deemed the tropical disturbance as a HIGH chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours.
1. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED…HOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT…THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…60 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EFFECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
Big Rain Event
The said storm will be capable of major rainfall as it slides northeast over the next few days. Several models take this storm right over northern Florida and into Georgia/Carolinas before riding the East Coast all the way to the Northern New England States. My concern (at this point) is more the flooding rains rather than high winds or high surf along the coast.
Thanks for checking in on this Wednesday, have a great rest of your week!
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