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Severe Weather Possible Across The South Sunday-Monday

18 Feb 2017, 9:23 pm

We’re closely monitoring our next potential severe weather days Sunday into Monday across Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana.  Here’s the latest.

The same energy moving across California Friday, dropping flooding rain to many areas in the southern part of the state, will then eject through Arizona and New Mexico, slowly pushing into Texas and Louisiana. This will all happen Sunday and Monday. Right now it appears the biggest threat from this next storm system will be damaging wind gusts, isolated hail, and flooding rain. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has highlighted part of the area as a “Slight Risk.” That ranks as the third in the procession of severe potential.

General T-storms: Non-severe weather expected. Gusts to 40 mph, small hail, lightning

Marginal Risk: Isolated severe storms, winds 40-60 mph, hail up to 1 inch, and a low tornado risk

Slight Risk: Scattered severe storms possible, isolated intense storms, one or two tornadoes, hail up to 1-2 inches, and strong/damaging wind possible

Enhanced Risk: Numerous severe storms possible, a more persistent/widespread coverage of storms, a few tornadoes, more wind damage reports, and hail 1-2 inches

Moderate Risk: Widespread severe storms likely with long-lived widespread and intense storms, strong tornadoes, and destructive hail of 2 inches or greater

High Risk: Widespread severe storms expected, long-lived and very widespread/intense storms, tornado outbreak, and/or a derecho

Severe potential on Sunday, February 19 (as of Saturday night) still showed a slight risk of storms near Dallas

Fortunately with Sunday’s storm potential it’s not the highest threat, but rather at a “slight risk.” Still, you’ll want to take every storm seriously and always have your emergency kit & preparedness plans ready to go. Outside of the yellow area, we could still see an isolated severe storm. It looks like this line of storms will weaken as it enters Louisiana with a slimmer chance of severe weather there, but still strong storms possible:

Potential of thunderstorms Monday, the biggest impact being lightning and heavy rain

Here’s the timing below:

Estimated radar (just a model) Sunday as rain/storms form and move east
Estimated radar (weather model prediction) late Sunday into Monday as the predicted line moves east
Estimated radar (weather model prediction) Monday as the predicted line moves east

Along with a chance of severe thunderstorms, Texas and Louisiana will have a chance of seeing flooding rain. This will be most likely from Corpus Christi to Houston to New Orleans between Monday morning and Tuesday morning.  An upper-level-low will cut off in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and it may do so close enough to the coast of TX/LA to bring very heavy rain. Right now estimates are for between 3 and 4 inches of rain to fall in the heaviest spots. However with rain forecasting and convective forecasting, more could fall. Here’s what our model is spitting out:

Predicted rainfall Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday

Notice how the model is predicting upwards of 9, 10, 11 inches of rain just offshore. We’ll have to watch that closely to see if it tries to sneak north. Stay with us here on weathernationtv.com as well as on-air. Remember, we’re streaming our weathercasts all the time. Check it out and download the WeatherNation app. If you can safely do so, please report any noteworthy weather to us. Stay weather aware!

For WeatherNation, Meteorologist Steve Glazier

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