The threat of severe thunderstorms returns to the southeast, especially by the weekend. Three separate storm systems will affect the South over the next few days, which will create the threat for severe storms.
On Thursday, a weak disturbance will create the potential for a few strong storms across the lower Mississippi Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk of severe storms from Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi. With any stronger storms, there will be a risk for locally damaging wind gusts.
There will be a brief break in the action Friday, before the severe threat picks back overnight Friday into Saturday. The severe threat will once again stay confined to the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe probabilities remain low, which is why only a marginal risk has been issued Friday. Any storms that are severe will have the potential to produce some hail and damaging wind gusts, and perhaps an isolated tornado.
The greatest threat of severe weather will be over the weekend, due to a strong jet stream that will combine with a strong low-pressure system, and ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
A surge of Gulf moisture along with surface temperatures in the high 60’s to low 70’s will provide impressive amounts of instability for this time of year across the central Gulf states. Storms will initiate Saturday, well ahead of a developing area of surface low pressure. Severe thunderstorms, including damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes are possible in Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
On Sunday, the severe weather threat will shift east across Alabama, Georgia, northern Florida and South Carolina. Once again, the primary threats with any severe storms that develop will be damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes.
Heavy rain will also be likely with these storms, which will increase the risk of flash flooding. A widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall will be likely across the lower Mississippi Valley, with some areas receiving as much as 3 to 5 inches.