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Severe Weather Threat Enhances Sunday

10 Jun 2017, 8:21 pm

The severe weather outlook is elevated going into the early morning hours on Sunday, possibly into the afternoon as well. The areas we are watching stretch from central South Dakota and to the east to Minnesota and Wisconsin. The biggest potential for severe weather will be damaging winds and large hail.

The severe weather outlook for Sunday, June 11. Remember, this encompasses much of the day so at any given time the storms can roll through. Also, the exact area of shading here may get slightly adjusted after this post due to forecast updates.

Thunderstorms will be moving to the east around 35 miles per hour, perhaps as quickly as 45 mph. Keep an eye on the sky to the west for changing conditions and remain aware of your surroundings while enjoying the hot, summer weather. The image above shows an ‘enhanced’ risk of severe weather. Let’s discuss what is possible in that scenario.

An enhanced risk of severe weather means that severe storms are more likely, some of which could produce hail up to two inches in diameter and tornadoes remain a possibility. The categories range from general which means non-severe storms, to high which means a severe outbreak is likely.
Forecast model for Sunday, June 11 during the afternoon. This snapshot in the forecast shows the main weather features responsible for the weather.

A stationary front is going to be draped across South Dakota and through the Twin Cities, then to the east through Green Bay and Alpena. This slow-moving front will help thunderstorms develop, while a wave of low pressure ( L indicated above ) rides along that front to the east. This will again help spread some storms and heavy rain from west to east.

The severe outlook Monday remains a bit higher once again in parts of the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and High Plains where severe storms remain a possibility.
Once again, severe thunderstorms will be possible in some of the same areas Tuesday. A 15% chance means that there’s a 15% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point in that yellow area.
Along with heavy storms, rainfall may be heavy too. In fact, from Sunday to Tuesday night as much as 4 inches may fall. Thunderstorms could produce localized amounts higher than that.

The weather will be staying a little busier in this neck of the woods during the next few days. Remember to stay weather aware and have a way of getting warnings/alerts. Also, the above images are forecast products and thus are liable to minor tweaks and changes, both in intensity but also placement. Check back in with us on-air and on-line here at WeatherNation as we keep you updated with the freshest information.

For WeatherNation, Meteorologist Steve Glazier

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