Significant Weekend Snow Event Brewing From New York City Into New England
Thursday, December 12, 2013
* NOAA has yet to issue Winter Storm Watches or Warnings, but I’m seeing growing signs of snowy and icy headaches for much of the northeast this weekend; specifically late Saturday into Sunday from eastern PA and northern New Jersey into New York City, and much of New England.
* Rain, ice forecast to mix in for New York City, keeping total snowfall amounts in the 2-4″ range, but some 4-6″ totals are possible in the northern/western suburbs, as much as 5-8″ may fall from Hartford and Providence to Boston late Saturday night into Sunday.
* Heaviest snowfall amounts forecast to fall west of I-95; icy mix right along the Atlantic coast.
Significant Snow Potential for New England. A weak, fast-moving coastal storm is forecast to deliver a fairly quick burst of wet snow, mixed with ice near the coast, from late Saturday into Sunday morning, the heaviest snowfall amounts inland, but this could be a plowable snow event from the suburbs of New York City into much of New England.
A Rough, Sloppy Saturday Night Along The I-95 Corridor. High-resolution models show as much as 3-4″ for New York City, probably less over Long Island, with some 3-6″ amounts from Hartford and Providence to Boston by Sunday. Roads may be wet/slushy in Manhattan Saturday night with temperatures very close to 32F, but I expect snow-covered roads over the northern and western suburbs, from north Jersey into Westchester and Fairfield Counties.
Another Model Solution. The models are in fairly good alignment, showing the heaviest amounts of snow from northern New Jersey into southern New England. Boston, Providence and Hartford stand a much better chance of significant snow than Midtown Manhattan.
BPI: Blizzard Potential Index. Although I don’t expect full-blown blizzard conditions, our internal BPI model suggests a period of moderate to heavy snow and low visibility hampering travel Saturday night (New York) spreading into Boston by Sunday. Conditions improve during the late PM hours Sunday across New England as this fast-moving system pushes out to sea.
Summary: It’s still a little early, and I want to see more model runs today and Friday, but there’s enough evidence to suggest a period of disruptive snow, mixed with ice near the Atlantic coast, late Saturday into Sunday as the storm tracks from southwest to northeast. I expect travel headaches from Allentown and Wilkes-Barre into northern New Jersey, the New York City suburbs into much of New England late Saturday night into midday Sunday, where precipitation may fall as mostly-snow. This may be a plowable event, especially from the northern suburbs of New York City to Hartford, Providence and Boston. Yes, January is coming early this year.
Paul Douglas/Senior Meteorologist- Alerts Broadcaster
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