Smaller Storms Over Time Cost More Than Extreme Events
Extreme storms can cause catastrophic flooding damage and cost billions of dollars. Over time, these disasters are may not be the most expensive. A drip, drip, drip of more frequent, nuisance flooding may end up being more costly.
According to researchers at the University of California, Irvine (UCI), rising sea levels will cause these smaller events to become increasingly frequent in the future, and the cumulative effect will become comparable to extreme events such as Hurricane Katrina or Superstorm Sandy.
“Catastrophic storms get a lot of media attention and are studied, but we wanted to know more about the non-extreme events,” said Amir AghaKouchak, associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at UCI and co-author of a new study on cumulative hazards in Earth’s Future, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.
[Credit: Jennie Brewton/UCI]
“These diffuse floods happen multiple times a month or year,” AghaKouchak said. “They don’t kill anyone, they don’t damage buildings, but over time they have extremely high-cost outcomes, and it happens without us realizing it.”
“The frequency is going higher because of sea level rise,” he said. “We call it clear-sky flooding. There’s no rain, but if you have a higher than usual tide, the ocean level is already high, so you get flooding in these coastal areas.”
While not catastrophic at the time, these episodes degrade infrastructure and can damage roads and building foundations. More immediately, nuisance flooding forces municipalities to spend resources to pump water out of streets. Communities suffer school closures, traffic interruptions and reverberating waves of cost and inconvenience. Degraded sewer infrastructure result in heightened public health risks.
In Washington, D.C., for instance, the number of hours of nuisance flooding per year has grown from 19 between 1930 and 1970 to 94 over the last two decades. Projections suggest that there could be as many as 700 hours of nuisance flooding per year by 2050. The capital’s monuments, marinas, parks, public transportation infrastructure, roads and businesses could be affected. The UCI researchers found similar potential impacts in four other American cities: Miami, New York, Seattle, and San Francisco.
Hamed Moftakhari, a UCI postdoctoral scholar and lead author of the new study, said people in often-hit regions are growing somewhat inured to the problem. “In a recent social science survey, people weren’t really interested in knowing the depth of the water, they just wanted to know how long they would be flooded,” he said. “Their main concern was finding out when they could get back to their schools and businesses.”
But public officials can’t afford to take cumulative hazards in stride, said Richard Matthew, professor of planning, policy & design at UCI and co-author of the new study. Policy makers faced with limited capital funds often defer action or make incremental improvements, the researchers note, when major investments may be critical to fortify their communities. The team created a Cumulative Hazards Index that could accurately pinpoint which locations would experience the greatest long-term risk.
“This index gives them a tool that could potentially help them decide to move beyond the convenient but potentially very costly strategies of deferral and incrementalism, and promote more transformative policies where these make sense,” Matthew said.
Brett Sanders, UCI professor of civil and environmental engineering and co-author of the study added, “the index is particularly useful for predicting future hot spots for nuisance flooding across the U.S., where adaptation measures are needed the most.”
For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels