The big storm we mentioned on Monday is still in the cards for the beginning of next week and will be addressed after our shorter term outlook. To begin let’s examine our shorter range Precipitation Type Forecast Animation.
Beginning with F006hr valid 8m EDT this morning, rains are forecast to begin streaming into the northeastern states, and begin extending along a developing upper level trough through the Great Lakes States and the Midwest. As evening approaches the potential for snows will exist in New York State through Maine into the morning hours tomorrow and into the Mid-Atlantic states on Friday. With low precipitable water content and weak forcing, accumulations will not be impressive. There is a chance for weak general thunderstorms in the midwest, but nothing to write home about.
Very scattered and weak precipitation has the potential to form in the southern Rockies and southwest around Friday afternoon and into the weekend as development occurs for our upcoming storm.
Speaking of which our Medium Range Precipitation Type Forecast Animation shows similar, yet interestingly different development than we discussed on Monday. Notice F126hr Valid 8am on Monday, March 23. our Low is situated over NE Colorado / SE Wyoming.
Advance 1 more frame valid 2pm EDT on Monday, notice how she dips just a tad more? It’s almost like she is trying to become another Dodge City Low like we have discussed the last few times doesn’t it? Along with the pressure distributions, also note our Forecast Maximum Temperature Animation at F114hr Valid 8pm Sunday March 22, F138hr and 8pm Monday March 23. Notice the nice warm air advection tongue streaming into the plains for both days (hint use the TOI for 72deg – thin blue line as a guide). This will aid the potential for strong thunderstorms we mentioned on Monday along with a myriad of other factors that I can’t discuss in this format.
Well back to our Medium Range Precipitation Type Forecast Animation, we left off on F132hr Valid 2pm EDT on Monday March, 23. After she dips for a tad into Kansas, notice how she propagates in a more northeasterly direction with this run? This change allows for more ample moisture content, and longer duration over the Dakotas and into Minnesota as she begins shifting easterly through 2pm EDT Wednesday afternoon where our animation ends.
It will certainly be interesting to view later runs to see any shifts in propagation. Our Forecast Minimum Temperature Animation certainly shows the colder air descending into the plains from Sunday through Wednesday afternoon, with the deepest push on our last frame of F180hr Valid 2pm EDT on Wednesday March 25. As you scroll through both maximum and minmum temperature animations, the warmth we’ve discussed for the majority of the nation certainly continues until our storm moves through next week.
More items of interest below:
Two advisories of interest are active this morning beginning with an Avalanche Watch in the State of Washington, and a Child Abduction Emergency issued in South Carolina. Each is included below for your convenience, or you may view the links directly above.
AVALANCHE WATCH FOR HIGH AVALANCHE DANGER LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
INCREASINGLY HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS BEEN RECEIVED DURING THE PAST THREE DAYS IN MOST OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OLYMPICS WITH MOST AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST RECEIVING FROM 30 TO 50 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND SOME PRE EXISTING WEAK LAYERS THIS WEATHER HAS CREATED A SIGNIFICANT AVALANCHE DANGER ESPECIALLY ON LEE SLOPES WHERE A HIGH DANGER CURRENTLY EXISTS ADDITIONAL SNOW AT RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS ON TUESDAY SHOULD ADD TO THE LOAD ON BURIED WEAK LAYERS HELPING TO MAINTAIN CURRENT CONSIDERABLE TO HIGH DANGERS. HOWEVER, INCREASING MODERATE RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH GRADUALLY RISING FREEZING LEVELS AND INCREASING WINDS TO FURTHER INCREASE THE DANGER IN THESE AREAS WITH HIGH AVALANCHE DANGER EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER ELEVATIONS MID-LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THIS DANGER INCREASE NATURAL OR HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AND TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED. WHILE EXPECTED AVALANCHES SHOULD INITIALLY INVOLVE ONLY THE MOST RECENTLY DEPOSITED SNOW AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES SOME LARGER SLABS RANGING UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET OR MORE SHOULD BECOME POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. THIS IS A SCARY SNOWPACK AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE WA CASCADES AND MT HOOD AREA A CONSIDERABLE AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING DANGER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE AND SLOW WARMING.
HOWEVER AS RAIN OR WET HEAVY SNOW SPREADS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY. GENERALLY HIGH DANGER SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 4 TO 5000 FEET.
REMEMBER THAT BACK COUNTRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND BEYOND SKI AREA BOUNDARIES. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
Child Abduction Emergency
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY…
WE HAVE JUST RECEIVED THIS IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT REGARDING AN ABDUCTED CHILD IN COLUMBIA, SC. THE SOUTH CAROLINA STATE LAW ENFORCEMENT DIVISION IS LOOKING FOR TAJAH MONIQUE HILLIARD. A BLACK FEMALE, AGE 17. SHE HAS BROWN HAIR AND BROWN EYES, WEIGHS 130 POUNDS AND IS 5 FEET 3 INCHES TALL. THE CHILD WAS LAST SEEN IN THE TWO NOTCH ROAD AREA OF COLUMBIA, SC AT 9:35 AM, MARCH 17, 2009 AND IS BELIEVED TO BE IN EXTREME DANGER. THE CHILD WAS LAST SEEN WEARING GREY SWEAT PANTS, SKY BLUE SHIRT WITH WHITE T-SHIRT AND WHITE SHOES.
AUTHORITIES ADVISE THE CHILD WAS LIKELY ABDUCTED BY A BLACK MALE. THEY MAY BE TRAVELING IN A BLACK VEHICLE. IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION REGARDING THIS ABDUCTION, CALL LAW ENFORCEMENT IMMEDIATELY.
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA LAW ENFORCEMENT DIVISION IN COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA.
As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!